The tenth Republican presidential primary debate is in the books. Here are a few brief thoughts:
Rubio wins, bettors say
At 8:30 p.m. Saturday, bettors gave Donald Trump a 72 percent chance to win the Republican nomination, according to ElectionBettingOdds.com. By the end of the debate, Trump’s odds had fallen by five percentage points. Meanwhile, Marco Rubio’s odds jumped up by almost five percentage points. Yes, Trump is still a massive favorite among the people who are willing to put their money where their mouths are. But in terms of how the debate affected the race, Rubio won.
Conventional wisdom and many polls would have you believe this is a three-way race between Trump, Rubio and Ted Cruz. Not so, bettors say. Cruz (two percent) basically has the same odds of becoming the nominee as John Kasich (1.5 percent) and Ben Carson (0.2 percent). Rubio’s odds aren’t great (27 percent), but if anyone is going to beat Trump for the nomination, it’s Rubio, bettors say.
Trump acknowledges we need immigrants
Trump is arguably the candidate most strongly opposed to immigration. But he made the case Thursday night for why our economy needs immigrants. Here’s what he said when pressed on why his company hired immigrants: “As far as the people that I’ve hired in various parts of Florida during the absolute prime season, like Palm Beach and other locations, you could not get help. It’s the hot season. People didn’t want to have part-time jobs.”
When Americans can’t or won’t do jobs that need to be done, businesses look to immigrants. Take, for example, cleaning jobs. Only three percent of workers born in America work in cleaning jobs. In contrast, 8.7 percent of immigrant workers are in cleaning jobs. Immigrant workers have the desire and skills necessary for that industry, and it helps our economy when we bring them in.
Fix the budget with entitlement reform
Trump’s plan to reduce the federal budget deficit: eliminate the Department of Education, the Environmental Protection Agency and waste, fraud and abuse in the federal government. The first two options would cut only 14 percent of the deficit. Eliminating waste, fraud and abuse would not cut the $468 billion that’s needed to balance the budget, and it’s not clear how Trump would go about eliminating those agencies anyway.
To really cut federal spending, Trump, and all the candidates, need to be willing to put entitlement reform on the table. Rather than keeping Americans dependent on Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, they need reforms that empower Americans to thrive without government help. The programs should be a true safety net, there to help the truly desperate.
Jason Russell is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
