As analysts try to rate Joe Biden’s chances in the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination fight, a number have started to draw comparisons to Jeb Bush’s failed effort in 2016. But this analogy does not hold, on multiple levels.
The most straight forward reason is that Biden’s polling is significantly better. There’s a widespread misconception that Bush was initially the front-runner in the Republican field and that was never really true.
Specifically, in 2016, Bush never polled above 17.8% in the RealClearPolitics average. On the day he announced his candidacy — June 15, 2015 — he was only at 10.8% in polls, essentially tied with Scott Walker, who was at 10.6%. Overall, five rival candidates were within three points of Bush on average — and that was before Donald Trump launched his campaign.
In contrast, Biden has consistently led in polls by much wider margins, never dropping below 26.3%. As he announces his candidacy, Biden is at 29.3% and only one candidate — Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. — is close, at 23%. The third place candidate is currently Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., who is more than 20 points behind Biden, at 8.3%.
Also, Bush did not typically win theoretical general election matchups against Hillary Clinton, but for a brief period when he was ahead by a hair. Yet Biden has been beating Trump in hypothetical matchups by eight points.
One could argue that they’re similar in that they represent the “establishment” while many voters are looking for somebody to challenge the system. However, that argument only goes so far.
Bush’s problem was that his last name created the dynasty problem. There were many people who felt that it would be problematic to have three presidents all come from the same family in such a small amount of time. This is especially true given that the Bush legacy was not viewed favorably by a large portion of Republican primary voters, who associated it with defeat, softness on immigration, and too much foreign policy adventurism. It was also seen as a liability during the general election, undermining the electability case that establishment candidates typically make. There’s a reason why George W. Bush has not attended a Republican convention since 2004 — because his presence was viewed as doing more harm than good.
While Biden also represents a return to the past, there are two key differences with Bush. One is that there is no dynasty issue — it’s quite common for former vice presidents to go on to become president, whereas we’ve never had three presidents from the same family before. The second is that the Obama presidency is significantly more popular among Democratic primary voters than the Bush legacy was among Republican primary voters
To be sure, Biden is an extremely vulnerable front-runner, for a number of reasons I have written about previously and will continue to highlight. There are a number of scenarios in which Biden could lose. That said, if he loses, Bush won’t be a particularly good comparison. He is in a much stronger position going into the race than Bush was at any point in the 2016 cycle.
