If Rick Santorum does beat Mitt Romney in Michigan tonight, it will not because Republicans picked him as the true conservative alternative to Mitt Romney. It will be because Democrats, for whatever reason, turned out to push Santorum over the top.
Everyone polling Michigan is reporting that the race is tightening in the final days. Romney’s aggregate advantage is down to 1.5 points in RealClearPolitics’ polling average. Public Policy Polling explains the movement in their poll, which actually shows Santorum edging out Romney 38 percent to 37 percent:
And the Santorum campaign is doing its best to to turn out these Democrats. Santorum spokesman Hogan Gidley has confirmed that the Santorum campaign is paying for robocalls to Democrat voters, urging them to vote for Santorum. “If we can get the Reagan Democrats in the primary, we can get them in the general,” he told Talking Points Memo.
And liberal bloggers are organizing for Santorum, too. As part of their “Operation Hilarity” campaign, the progressive activist Daily Kos blog emailed all 8,500 of their registered Michigan users, urging them to vote for Santorum.
Santorum may pull out an upset win in Michigan tonight, and then claim he united GOP and Reagan Democrat voters. More likely, a Santorum win made possible by Michigan Democrats will mean they joined Operation Hilarity,” not that they rediscovered the Great Communicator.
Campaign 2012
Health care: According to Gallup, Obamacare is a bigger political liability for President Obama than Romneycare is for Romney. Specifically, 22% of registered voters say Obama’s support for the national healthcare law makes them more likely to vote for him, while 36% say it makes them less likely. If Romney wins the Republican presidential nomination, 6% say his support for the Massachusetts healthcare bill will make them more likely to vote for him next November, and 21% less likely.
Nebraska Senate: Former Sen. Bob Kerrey, D-Neb., has changed his mind and plans to run for the open Senate seat in Nebraska, The Washington Post reports.
Around the Bigs
USA Today, TransCanada to go ahead with part of controversial pipeline: TransCanada announced Monday that it will build the Oklahoma-to-Texas portion of the Keystone XL Pipeline without approval from Obama. Environmentalist activists are expected to sue to stop construction.
The Wall Street Journal, Little Progress Notched in Federal Streamlining: A new Government Accountability Office report shows that Obama has not cut government waste. According to the report, there are 81 programs with unnecessary duplication, including 53 programs to help entrepreneurs, 15 unmanned-aircraft programs and at least nine agencies involved in protecting food and agriculture systems from disasters and terrorist attacks.
The New York Times, Buyers Face Higher Fees at F.H.A.: The Federal Housing Administration announced Monday that it would increase two types of fees that borrowers must pay.
The Los Angeles Times, California gas prices jump 26 cents in a week: According to the U.S. Department of Energy, gasoline prices are up this week, hitting an average of $4.29 a gallon for self-serve regular in California, and $3.29 nationwide. That is a 26 cent one-week jump for California and 13 cent jump nationally.
CBS News, Israel could strike Iran without warning U.S.: Israeli officials say they won’t warn the U.S. if they decide to launch a pre-emptive strike against Iranian nuclear facilities.
Righty Playbook
The Heritage Foundation reports that while Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., opposes the Keystone XL Pipeline, he has requested that the State Department pressure Saudi Arabia to increase its oil production.
The Washington Free Beacon highlights a Hill poll showing that the vast majority of likely voters think the rich already pay their fair share in taxes.
Hot Air‘s Ed Morrissey posts video showing Rep. Kathy Hochul, D-N.Y., telling constituents at a town hall that as Democrats “we’re not looking to the Constitution on that aspect of it” when they decided to support the HHS birth control mandate.
Lefty Playbook
Talking Points Memo reports that House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, D-Md., is working behind the scenes on a “major” deficit reduction bill.
ThinkProgress attacks The Hill poll on taxes noting that some taxpayers who make more than $250,000 do pay less than a 25 percent effective tax rate.
Slate reports that the Obama campaign is encouraging Democrats not to vote in today’s Michigan primary.
