I was not aware that Marquette’s Law School did polling, but they have a new poll out that shows Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, R, with a modest lead in the expected recall election:
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The poll found the governor holding a 50 to 44 percent margin against Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, a 49 to 42 percent lead against former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk, a 49 to 43 percent lead on former U.S. Rep. David Obey and a 50 to 40 percent lead on Democratic state Sen. Tim Cullen.
The biggest problem with this recall effort has been the Democrats’ field of opponents. Barrett has been reluctant to join the race, and the unions dislike him, even though he would be the favorite in a primary. Obey still hasn’t ruled it out. Falk, who polls behind both in a hypothetical primary, seems most likely to get the unions’ endorsement.
The risk the Democrats (and really the unions) run here is that Walker will win, sending a message that vindicates his reforms. That is why Obey recently issued a warning to his party:
“Democrats who think that almost any person nominated to run against Scott Walker can win, are dead wrong. This is a steep uphill fight. If we do win, it will be by a razor thin margin,”
