In what states is support for third- and fourth-party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein strongest this year? For the most part, in states where support for Ross Perot was strongest in 1992. In what states is support for Johnson and Stein lowest this year? For the most part, in states where support for Ross Perot was weakest in 1992.
Those conclusions were prompted by comparing the results in four-way pairings from the Washington Post/Survey Monkey poll of 50 states (they didn’t poll D.C.) and the Perot percentages in the U.S. Election Atlas website. In 35 of the 50 states, the Johnson+Stein percentage is within 4 points of the Perot percentage, rounded off to the nearest integer. In seven states — Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Dakota, West Virginia — the percentages were the same. In only one state is the difference more than 10 percent, and that is easily explainable: it’s New Mexico, Gary Johnson’s home state, where the J+S percentage is 30 and Perot’s percentage was 16.
The following tables array the states in each of four regions according to the J+S percentage; the second figure shown is the Perot 1992 percentage. The similarities are glaringly obvious.
| EAST | J+S 2016 | Perot 1992 |
| Maine | 23 | 30 |
| RI | 22 | 23 |
| Vermont | 21 | 23 |
| NH | 20 | 23 |
| Connecticut | 17 | 22 |
| Delaware | 16 | 20 |
| Massachusetts | 16 | 23 |
| Pennsylvania | 16 | 18 |
| Maryland | 15 | 14 |
| NY | 13 | 16 |
| NJ | 11 | 16 |
| DC | na | 4 |
| MIDWEST | ||
| SD | 22 | 22 |
| Kansas | 21 | 27 |
| Minnesota | 20 | 24 |
| Nebraska | 20 | 24 |
| Iowa | 19 | 19 |
| Missouri | 19 | 22 |
| Indiana | 18 | 20 |
| Michigan | 18 | 19 |
| ND | 18 | 23 |
| Illinois | 17 | 17 |
| Ohio | 17 | 21 |
| Wisconsin | 17 | 22 |
| WEST | ||
| NM | 30 | 16 |
| Utah | 28 | 27 |
| Idaho | 26 | 27 |
| Alaska | 26 | 28 |
| Washington | 23 | 24 |
| Colorado | 22 | 23 |
| California | 19 | 21 |
| Montana | 19 | 26 |
| Nevada | 18 | 26 |
| Oregon | 18 | 24 |
| Wyoming | 18 | 26 |
| Arizona | 17 | 24 |
| Hawaii | 14 | 14 |
| SOUTH | ||
| Oklahoma | 20 | 23 |
| Georgia | 16 | 13 |
| Virginia | 16 | 14 |
| WV | 16 | 16 |
| Arkansas | 14 | 10 |
| NC | 14 | 14 |
| Florida | 13 | 20 |
| SC | 13 | 12 |
| Tennessee | 13 | 10 |
| Kentucky | 12 | 14 |
| Louisiana | 12 | 12 |
| Alabama | 10 | 11 |
| Mississippi | 6 | 9 |
Obviously, over a span of 24 years, there is something in common in the appeal of Ross Perot and the appeal of third- and fourth-party candidates this year. Generally, both do better in the North than the South, better in the Great Plains, Rocky Mountains and New England than in the industrial corridor from New Jersey west to Illinois. They do worst wherever voting correlates highly with race among whites as well as blacks.
Additional analysis might build on Sean Trende’s analysis of the missing white votes from 2012, and on Ben Domenech’s recent speculation that Gary Johnson is running below Perot’s numbers because his appeal — liberal on cultural issues, conservative on government spending — was more attractive in the 1990s than it is today. I may have more to say on this after further reflection.
