Even if Newt Gingrich surges to victory in South Carolina on Saturday, his ability to take advantage of any momentum heading into Florida will be partially blunted by the fact that about 184,000 people have already voted in the Sunshine State, where Mitt Romney currently has a commanding lead. That’s about 9 percent of the roughly 2 million votes expected to be cast in the January 31st primary.
So far, 174,135 absentee ballots have been returned, according to Brian Hughes, a spokesman for the Republican Party of Florida, and an additional 9,635 votes have been cast in five counties allowing early voting.
If Gingrich wins South Carolina, tradition would dictate that he’ll probably get a bounce — but that won’t be reflected in the votes that have already been cast. Recent polls have shown Romney with anywhere from a 15 point to 25 point lead in Florida, suggesting that before anybody in the state even knows the results of South Carolina, Romney may be 28,000 to 46,000 votes ahead in ballots already cast. It could be well higher than that, as these numbers only take into account ballots received through yesterday, and Romney’s far superior organization in Florida could mean that a disproportionate number of his supporters sent in absentee ballots.
To be sure, Florida is a huge state where 1.9 million voters turned out for the GOP primary in 2008. Hughes says the state party is hoping it will eclipse 2 million this year. So it isn’t as if the absentee and early voting that’s already taken place dooms Gingrich’s chances in the state all on its own — we’re only talking about a few points in percentage terms. But it is another factor working in Romney’s favor as the race moves beyond South Carolina.
