Confident of victory in the Florida primaries tomorrow but afraid it might not be big enough to derail challenger Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney’s team is moving to play down talk he will win by 10 points or more. “The win will wind up big, but we’re not going to get double digits,” said a key advisor.
Several polls today have Romney’s lead increasing to a Real Clear Politics average of 12 percent. Only three of nine of the most recent polls have Romney’s lead in single numbers, with the highest being a 20 point lead in a Suffolk University poll released over the weekend.
What’s driving the Romney team to downplay expectations are indications that the nasty campaign is angering voters and might put the brakes on the surge of Romney voters to the polls. “Romney’s message is clearly resonating in Florida, but the race has been very fluid and Gingrich’s negativity is bringing the discourse down,” said the advisor. As a result, he added, the vote could be depressed.
“The negative flow is great on both sides and it makes it harder for Romney to get the whole lift he would of had it not gone so nasty,” said the advisor.
While hesitant to predict a margin of victory, some Romney insiders are putting it in the 7 percent to 9 percent range.
“A win is a win is a win at eight-nine points,” said one.
What’s more, even if the victory isn’t in double digits, look for Romney to claim that he has the momentum because he would have won two of four primaries and caucuses, and nearly won the first, in Iowa.
“Its hard to predict what kind of bounce we will get, but we are delivering our core message and when we do that, we stay on top,” added the advisor.
Reach Paul Bedard at @whispersbedard or [email protected].
