Republican Jon Barela is the underdog in his race against Rep. Martin Heinrich, D, in New Mexico’s First Congressional district. But the early voting numbers have to give him some hope.

GMU Professor Mike McDonald has been tracking the early vote in several states and counties, including Bernalillo County, which includes Albuquerque and cast more than 80 percent of the votes in the district in 2008.  First, remember that New Mexico Democrats, much like those in West Virginia, dominate the state in terms of registration but are known to split their tickets. Then take a look at this year’s early voting in Bernalillo County compared to that of 2008, when Heinrich won with 56 percent:

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