Elizabeth Warren’s policy platform is nothing like Donald Trump’s, but on trade, they’re two sides of the same coin.
Warren and Trump both blame trade for job loss in the U.S., specifically in the manufacturing industry. And they’re wrong.
Automation isn’t the culprit, Warren claimed during tonight’s Democratic primary debate, the outsourcing of jobs is. Trump has been saying the same thing for years. That’s why he supports hefty tariffs and stringent policies that discourage U.S. corporations from looking overseas for cheaper production.
All of the evidence, however, points in the other direction. Trade hardly even figures in the equation. Technological advancements in the past century have put us in a position where manufacturing production in the U.S. is up dramatically, whereas manufacturing jobs are down.
Indeed, 85% of manufacturing job losses have been due to automation, according to a study by the Center for Business and Economic Research at Ball State University.
The historical divergence is obvious: Up until the 21st century, more productivity consistently meant more jobs. Now, we’re producing more but hiring fewer people, and technological progress is to blame, according to a 2013 study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Between 2000 and 2010 alone, the U.S. lost about 5.6 million manufacturing jobs.
Globalization has certainly contributed to job loss in the manufacturing industry. In the early 2000s, trade with China resulted in an immediate employment downturn, according to M.I.T., when more than 2 million blue-collar workers found themselves out of work.
But even in the industries most afflicted by globalization, such as the steel industry, technology has been far more important in the loss of jobs. Take the steel industry, for example, an object of Trump’s tariff affections since he arrived in the White House. More than 400,000 steel workers lost their jobs between 1962 and 2005, more than 75% of the industry’s workforce, even as its exports actually increased, according to a study by the American Economic Review.
Why? Experts blame the invention of the minimill. Globalization didn’t eliminate the steel industry’s jobs, the minimill did. And no amount of tariffs can “rectify” that.
Andrew Yang seems to be one of the only 2020 candidates who understands the cause of the crisis that manufacturing workers have faced. Yang is right: We can’t live without technology, so we must find a way to live with it. He has consistently campaigned on changing society to account for automation.
Warren, meanwhile, continues to put her head in the sand alongside Trump.
