After a long period of flailing and offering false hope, President Trump’s Monday press conference on the coronavirus pandemic was much more reassuring. And on one important point, he finally seems to be getting it.
For weeks, Trump tried to downplay the coronavirus, seemingly thinking that happy talk would somehow convince investors to chill out. But now that markets have shrugged off multiple rate increases by the Federal Reserve, he seems to finally realize that there’s no chance for the market to recover until the spread of the coronavirus is under control.
“The best thing I can do for the stock market is we have to get through this crisis,” Trump said. “That’s what I can do. That’s the best thing we can do. That’s what I think about.”
When asked about the possibility the economy was in a recession, he said: “Well, it may be. We’re not thinking in terms of a recession, we’re thinking in terms of the virus. Once we stop — I think there’s a tremendous pent up demand both in terms of the stock market and in terms of the economy, and once this goes away, once this goes through and we’re done with it, you’re going to see a tremendous surge.”
Investors hate uncertainty more than anything else. And the wide range of potential estimates as to the severity and duration of the virus is driving markets bananas. And the problem is that the only means of slowing down the virus involves shutting down global economic activity in a way that has little precedent.
Trump may be overly optimistic in thinking that the economy will easily bounce back. Pent up demand or not, many businesses will struggle to stay afloat if they can’t generate much revenue for months, and those who they employee will suffer. That could have more enduring economic effects.
Economic predictions aside, it’s clear now that Trump is putting more of his focus where it should be, which is focusing on fighting the pandemic. And he’s increasingly deferring to experts as opposed to his gut feelings.
His sober comments came as the White House task force issued revised guidance saying Americans should avoid gatherings of more than 10 people for at least the next 15 days. And in a stark contrast to his early predictions about the virus going away in April, he warned that it could be into July or August until the virus “washes away.”
Trump also changed his tune when it came to lashing out at his typical enemies or refusing to distance himself from allies.
He said: “I think a lot of the media actually has been very fair. I think people are pulling together on this. I really think the media has been very fair.”
Meanwhile, he said that he disagreed with Rep. Devin Nunes trying to encourage people to give business to restaurants, saying such comments were, “Adverse to what the professionals are saying.”
It may be too late to make up for the significant early errors both in the rollout of the testing and Trump’s messaging. And he can certainly shift tone back at any moment. But Monday’s press conference was encouraging.
