Will GOPers block Ex-Im reauthorization today?

In a few minutes, Sen. Maria Cantwell, from Boeing’s home state of Washington, will try to amend the jobs bill by adding a four-year reauthorization of the Export-Import Bank, a government agency that subsidizes U.S. exports — mostly Boeing jets — at taxpayer risk.

Typically, Ex-Im reauthorization passes easily, but there are a few of countervailing winds this year that could lead to its defeat.

First, the Tea Party phenomenon and Obama’s corporatism has stirred up a bit of a free-market populist streak in the GOP, even on the Senate side. The distaste for corporate welfare like Ex-Im is growing on the Right.

Second, Delta — angry that its competitors get Ex-Im subsidies — has succesfully stirred up some indigestion about the agency.

Most importantly, Republican leaders do not like Harry Reid’s tendency of stunting debate, and so they’re not happy about Reid sticking this measure into the jobs bill. Passing Cantwell’s amendment, and thus attaching Ex-Im reauthorization to the Jobs bill, would effectively preclude any debate or amendment on Ex-Im. The reauthorization and increase in the agency’s debt limit could basically get passed with no debate.

The result of these three pushes: I’m told that the GOP, as a bloc, might vote to block cloture on Cantwell’s amendment, thus killing the effort to reauthorize Ex-Im through the Jobs bill.

Now, if you’re the Democrats trying to pretend you’re campaigning against Big Bad Business, then of course you don’t want a debate over a Fannie Mae-like agency that gives most of its subsidy dollars to Boeing and most of the rest to the likes of GE, Bechtel, Halliburton, and United Technologies.

I think most Republicans, eventually, will vote to reauthorize Ex-Im, but it’s possible that with some debate, some ambitious curbs could be put on the agency, including possibly Eric Cantor’s proposal to wind down the agency while negotiating with other countries for a multilateral disarmament in export subsidies.