UPDATE: Louisiana’s proportional allocation of delegates is different from other states, and so I got it wrong originally. Here’s a good account of how the delegates are handed out. See Rule 20 here. I’ve corrected it below.
Rick Santorum easily won tonight’s Louisiana primary, continuing his strong showings in the South. But he may have only chipped away at 1% of Mitt Romney’s delegate lead.
While Lousiana sends 46 delegates to the Republican National Convention, only 20 are selected tonight — the other 26 are elected at later caucuses and a June convention. Winning the state big helps Santorum’s case that he should get more of those 26 delegates, but they will all be unbound and the folks naming the delegates will be free to chose whomever they want however they want.
So how are tonight’s 20 delegates divided up?
Proportionally — but only among those candidates receiving more than 25 percent of the vote, leaving a few of these delegates uncommitted.
Exit polls suggest that only Santorum (47%) and Romney (28%) will clear that hurdle. If Santorum really does win 47% to 28%, then he would get 9 delegates while Romney would get 6. The remaining 5 delegates allocated tonight would be uncommitted.
If Mitt falls below 25%: In this case, Romney gets 0 delegates. If Santorum beats 47.5%, he gets 10 delegates.
So the best outcome reasonable possible for Santorum is a 10-0 win. Most likely, it’s a 9-6 win, giving him 3 delegates on Romney’s 300 delegate lead.
