The five incumbent presidents who lost

Published April 4, 2011 4:00am ET



On the morning that President Obama launches his reelection campaign, the Republican field of presidential candidates remains – at best – a guessing game.

Political pundits can tick off dozens of strategic reasons why the 2012 hopefuls are lying in wait. But a purely statistical analysis of a president’s chances of winning reelection could be reason enough.

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