For almost two years now, the left and right have been engaged in the same basic battle over the fiscal impact of health care legislation. Supporters of the law tout Congressional Budget Office estimates showing the legislation will reduce the deficit, while opponents counter that the agency’s estimates are based on a law that was filled with accounting gimmicks that obscured its true price tag. But one thing that is sometimes lost in this debate is the significant opportunity costs involved in passing ObamaCare. That is, the money that Democrats raised through tax hikes and Medicare cuts is slated to be used to pay for a new entitlement program instead of to fix problems with existing entitlements.
According to the most recent CBO estimates (PDF), the health care law would raise taxes by $813 billion and reduce spending (mostly on Medicare) by $732 billion in the 10-year period between 2012 and 2021. That $1.5 trillion-plus could have been used to extend the solvency of Medicare and Social Security, but instead, under current law, will be used to finance subsidies for individuals to buy insurance on the new insurance exchanges, add 17 million people to the Medicaid rolls, and finance the other ObamaCare initiatives. The gross cost of the coverage expansions is now projected to be $1.4 trillion, which doesn’t even take into account full implementation.
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