When California decided to move up the 2020 Democratic primary to early March, it was seen as a potential “firewall” for Sen. Kamala Harris, as her home state voters will award about 20 percent of the delegates needed to secure the nomination.
A big win there would not only help Harris’ delegate math, but could also help her gain separation from opponents, or regain traction in the event of early state stumbles. On the other hand, as Ed Kilgore explained, though a major opportunity, a disappointing second- or third-place showing would be a major blow to her chances. Though it’s quite early to draw too many conclusions, some early surveys reveal a potential weakness for Harris among the state’s crucial Hispanic voting bloc.
By way of background, California is not a winner-take-all state. Of the 416 delegates up for grabs, 144 are pledged based on the statewide popular vote, and the remaining 272 are awarded on a proportional basis in each of the state’s 53 congressional districts. Yet the potential haul is still so massive that it will be hotly contested in a race in which more than a dozen prominent Democrats will be fighting for delegates.
On the surface, a Quinnipiac poll released on Wednesday of the state’s Democratic primary looks like many others we have seen both nationally and in individual states: Joe Biden (26%) is ahead of Sen. Bernie Sanders (18%), who is ahead of Harris (17%).
Yet a further breakdown of the numbers reveals something interesting: Harris is much closer to the lead among white voters, and much further away among Hispanics. Specifically, among whites, Biden is at 20%, while Harris and Sanders are tied at 18%. Among Hispanics, however, Sanders and Biden are tied at 30%, with Harris way back at 12%.
It would be easy to dismiss this were it a one-off survey. Yet the tepid reaction to Harris within the Hispanic community was also consistent with another survey taken last month by the Public Policy Institute of California.
As the Sacramento Bee described the results of the statewide poll that looked at her approval, “Harris is particularly popular among women, African Americans and college graduates in California, with a majority of each demographic approving. But she fares less well amongst another critical demographic — Latinos — despite a concerted effort to woo that bloc of Californians with her stands on immigration and pushback against Trump administration border policies.”
The poll found that, “a majority of Latinos either weren’t familiar with Harris (30 percent) or disapproved over her (26 percent). Another 43 percent approved of her performance as senator.”
Hispanic voters, it should be emphasized, are not a monolithic group. California is home to a diverse array of groups that can claim Hispanic heritage, and in the past, there has been an observable generational divide. Until more detailed polling becomes available, it’s hard to speculate exactly what’s being reflected in the surveys.
It should be noted that in 2016, Harris coasted to election when facing Democrat Loretta Sanchez, whose parents were Mexican immigrants. One USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times post-election poll found that Harris won the Latino vote, she lost it by six points. Either way, it was clearly not a barrier to her easy victory.
Though it would be silly to dismiss her chances of winning over Hispanics based on relatively scant data this early in the process, given the importance of the group in the Democratic primary, it’s something worth paying close attention to in the coming year.
