Confirmation of my view that voters in different seats are sending different messages comes from the the Instant analysis on the Times blog from its chief political correspondent, Sam Coates: “At this stage there have only been three results that matter.
“The first is Kingswood, just east of Bristol, which shows the Tories have the capacity to reach deep into Labour heartland with a seat that is 135 on their target list – well above the 116 they need for an overall majority.
“The second important seat is Tooting, which provides contradictory evidence – this saw Labour’s Sadiq Khan hold on despite a rise in the Tory vote.
“What we appeared to see in that seat was anti-Tory tactical voting with a big increase in turnout of almost 10%, combined with a decrease in the Lib Dem vote as people voted to keep out the Tories.
“The third significant seat is Guildford, which most people a week ago thought would easily fall to the Liberal Democrats as their number one target.
“However the Tories managed to significantly increase their vote, suggesting that in commuter heartlands the Lib Dems failed to seal the deal, perhaps because of their more aggressive anti-City and high tax policies.”
