With Mitt Romney in South Carolina, Newt Gingrich up in the North Country, Jon Huntsman up in the Connecticut River vally, Ron Paul taking a break, and Rick Santorum at a college convention in Concord, I took a spin through four candidate headquarters in Manchester today (Ron Paul, always different, has his headquarters in a downscale industrial park off Interstate 93 in Concord. Each of them had many more volunteers than I saw in December—understandable five days away from the primary. But the atmosphere was different.
At Rick Santorum’s headquarters on South River Road in Bedford, where last time I saw two paid staffers and Christmas decorations, the Christmas decorations were long gone and more than a dozen volunteers were busy making phone calls and stuffing envelopes (in the email age?). The mood seemed to be optimistic and determined. Hogan Gidley, of Santorum’s national staff, reminisced about how the crowds at Santorum events in Iowa got bigger three weeks before Christmas and said that Santorum had made 30 trips and held more than 100 events in New Hampshire—though the last was on December 3 (he understandably and wisely spent the last month in Iowa) and few attracted big crowds. But they had 55 to 60 people on a election night gathering in the headquarters (a tight squeeze) and have been drawing many more to New Hampshire events. The Santorum campaign says it raised $1 million on the day after the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire coordinator Mike Biundo says they raised more than $250,000 by 10am today. But Suffolk University’s New Hampshire tracking poll (for January 3-4) seemed to show less of a bounce for Santorum in this state than Rasmussen’s national poll (conducted January 4). Santorum was up to only 8% in New Hampshire (which suggests a showing of roughly 10% on the interviews conducted after news of the Iowa caucus results); Ron Paul actually seemed to gain more. Rasmussen, in contrast, showed Santorum with 21% nationally, not all that far from Mitt Romney’s leading 29%. The Santorum folks seem optimistic, but uncertain about New Hampshire, and quick to assure me that he had done a lot of groundwork in South Carolina and some even in enormous (19 million people) Florida.
Jason McBride, Romney’s state director, seemed confident as more than a dozen volunteers labored at his dilapidated Elm Street headquarters. Paul and a superPAC supporting Jon Huntsman are running negative ads against Romney, while Newt Gingrich ran a print ad in the simpatico New Hampshire Union Leader Wednesday comparing his record on issues with Romney’s. But McBride says (and the Suffolk pollster confirms) that Romney’s support in the state is not only larger but also more committed than any other candidate’s. Romney is scheduled to fly in Friday with South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley for a spaghetti dinner in Tilton. Romney has positive TV ads on Manchester’s Channel 9 and the Boston stations, and his organization is sending out one final mailer—no one stuffing envelopes in headquarters—to Republicans and undeclareds (those not registered in either party) to arrive Saturday. Romney can expect to be the piñata at the two debates on Saturday evening (at Channel 9) and Sunday morning (on Meet the Press). “I think we win here,” says McBride. “With that show of strength, we go strong into South Carolina. Florida is important. We’re built for the long haul.”
The mood seems more frenetic at Newt Gingrich’s headquarters a few blocks north on Elm Street. Field director Sam Pimm pins his hopes on debates. “Newt does very, very well in debates. We’re looking for Newt to do very well” on Saturday night and Sunday morning. Left unsaid is the fact that Gingrich has been cratering in national and New Hampshire polls, and as he did in the Iowa caucuses.
Jon Huntsman’s headquarters also has a dozen or so volunteers working eagerly and busily. New Hampshire press secretary Tim Miller points out that the candidate’s biggest event was Tuesday night in Peterborough, with 350 people attending on Iowa caucus night. Peterborough has traditionally been sympathetic to liberal Republicans, and interviews with people attending Huntsman events indicate that some regard him as—how to put this?—the least distasteful Republican candidate. That, even though his economic platform is, as he points out, solidly conservative. His schedule for the next few days come in towns with similar traditions in the Seacoast, Connecticut River valley and the North Country. “We’re going to outwork anyone else,” says Miller, and indeed Huntsman has spent more time in the state than anyone else, and very little time in any other state.
