Democrat fiscal cliff jump would cause huge drop in employment

Senate Democrat plans to let the U.S. economy go off a “fiscal cliff” will cause a 6 percent drop in gross domestic product (gdp) and a two percent rise in unemployment, according to a new study released by former Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Holtz-Eakin.

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Patty Murray promised Monday in a speech at the Brookings Institution that unless Republicans agree to raise taxes on those making more than $250,000, then Democrats will allow both a $440 billion tax hike and a $108 billion spending cut to take effect on January first. “If we can’t get a good deal—a balanced deal that calls on the wealthy to pay their fair share—then I will absolutely continue this debate into 2013,” Murray said.

According to Holtz-Eakin and co-author Ike Brannon, this policy would inflict “an enormous fiscal shock” on the U.S. economy. Putting the almost-$600 billion hit in perspective, Holtz-Eakin and Brannon write:

To put the size of the fiscal cliff into perspective, consider that the U.S. economy will produce over $15 trillion worth of goods and services in 2012, or about two percent (or roughly $300 billion) more than it produced last year. In other words, the level of contractionary fiscal policy that would hit the U.S. economy were we to reach the fiscal cliff without any resolution is roughly twice the estimated economic growth of 2012. In fact, the negative fiscal shock presented by the fiscal cliff exceeds gross domestic product (gdp) growth in any year over the last two decades.

As to the economic impact of hitting the cliff:

If we follow the lead of the Administration and assume that potential gdp growth is approximately equal to our current growth rate of 2 percent, then a 6 percentage point drop in gdp triggered by a jump off the fiscal cliff would increase unemployment by 2 percentage points, or to over 10 percent. This translates to an additional 2.8 million people unemployed.

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