People are discussing the new Quinnipiac poll that shows former Rep. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., leading Sen. Arlen Specter, D, by five points. I don’t know what Quinnipiac is doing in the Keystone State, but their last poll showed Specter in the lead by 7 points in late February. The one before that, in early December, had shown the race in a tie. (You can look them all up with the indispensable polling summary page at Real Clear Politics.
Quinnipiac is a well-respected outfit. But when their last poll came out, I didn’t understand why Specter would have suddenly taken the upper hand. Nothing too important had transpired in the race, and everyone else’s polls (except Daily Kos) suggested a lead for Toomey.
Nor do I understand why there would be a sudden 12-point swing in Toomey’s favor. Polling is fickle, I guess, but that’s a pretty big margin of error.
