It’s not over yet in Wisconsin. Republicans there have an opportunity tomorrow to recall two Democrat state senators and thereby restore the 19-14 Senate majority that Democrats pared to 17-16 in last week’s recall elections.
Conventional wisdom and public polling suggests that Democrats should hold both seats, but some Republicans predict a surprise.
The Democratic recall elections pit incumbent Senators Jim Holperin and and Robert Wirch against, respectively, Republican challengers Kim Simac (a Tea Party favorite) and Jonathan Steitz, an attorney. From the beginning of the recall process, Holperin has appeared the more vulnerable of the two.
Poll numbers released today by Daily Kos/Public Policy Polling (PPP) show Holperin with a 55-41 lead over Simac and Wirch leading Steitz 55-42. The poll suggested a nine-point Democratic advantage in turnout.
On the other hand, Red Racing Horses/We Ask America, a Republican-leaning firm, released their own poll that had Holperin clinging to a 51-49 advantage. This poll sampled a statistically equal number of Democrats and Republicans.
Recent election history seems more in line with the Red Racing Horses poll. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, R, won Holperin’s district with 57% of the vote in 2010, and Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice David Prosser carried it this year with roughly 55%.
Dismissing the Daily Kos poll as the product of “a horribly slanted sample,” John Hogan of the Committee to Elect a Republican Senate said that Republican “intensity has been extremely high [while] the Democrat base seems to be deflated,” and predicted that the Holperin-Simac election would be decided by voter turnout and the campaigns’ Get Out the Vote operations.
Still, PPP has been stunningly accurate in these recalls so far. And as last week’s elections demonstrated, it’s always tough to beat incumbent legislators — even when they’re vulnerable.
