I have noted repeatedly that net immigration from Mexico to the United States has been zero or roughly that since the collapse of the housing market in 2007. But illegal movement across the U.S.-Mexico border continues and is accelerating, as a report from the Pew Research Center notes.
The number of unaccompanied children in the first half of fiscal year 2016 is below that of the previous year, but almost equal to that in fiscal year 2014, when the surge of unaccompanied children first made headlines. And the number of children coming in with families in the first half of fiscal year 2016 is 62 percent above the level of the corresponding period of fiscal year 2014.
This is happening despite some steps taken by the U.S. and Mexican government to discourage it, including Mexico’s increasing deportations of Central American children. The bulk of these illegal immigrants appear to come primarily from Guatemala and El Salvador, with fewer from Honduras than two years ago.
All this suggests we could see a large surge of illegal immigrants crossing the border this summer. Evidently Barack Obama’s policies of sending these illegals to various places in the United States has led many to believe that if they can get into the United States they will not be required to leave.
This could affect the presidential race. As Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com has noted, support for Donald Trump in national primary polling rose from about 25 percent to 35 percent after the terrorist attacks in Paris and San Bernardino. Could a surge of illegal border crossings, similar to or greater than that of summer 2014, increase his support in the general election? It certainly seems possible.
