Turnout: So very wee (reuters photo)
It’s all the rage this year to squint hard at midterm election results and declare “a-ha!” — that anti-incumbent rage is fueling a purge of officeholders, or that the influence of tea partiers has been massively overstated, or the nation is (pick one): tired, cranky, bored, angry, in need of a snack.
Beltway pleads guilty to fomenting such notions. Come on! We have column inches, blog posts and dead air on cable to fill! But the truth is, so far you can’t really extrapolate much from the 2010 midterms — because barely anyone is voting. Maybe that’s the lesson to learn.
As David “Sherf” Sherfinski reports on Capital Land and David “No Nickname” Freddoso notes here, turnout is light tonight in the Old Dominion. Same in New Jersey — where only 14 percent of voters in a new Farleigh Dickinson University poll even knew there was an election on, according to NJToday.Net:
Most voters (48%) thought the next time would be in November. A few (4%) figured they’d have to wait until the 2012 presidential election. Many said they just didn’t know (30%).
Some things still get voters to the polls. Experts in South Carolina are predicting that Republican state Rep. Nikki Haley’s alleged adultery drama will drive up turnout in her gubernatorial primary race. GOP turnout in the state in 2006 was 11.5 percent, according to USA Today.
At the NYT Caucus blog, John Harwood breaks it down, noting that all the hyperventilating about what it all means is coming down to a few, dyspeptic voters:
Consider the 2010 evidence to date:
Just 17 percent of registered voters cast ballots in the Texas primary for governor, which was a much-publicized battle between the incumbent Republican, Rick Perry, and Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison.
Just 22 percent showed up in Illinois for contests for governor and for the Senate seat once held by President Obama. That turnout was the lowest in two decades.
So, you know — grain of salt until all the votes are in. And even then, we should resist drawing sweeping conclusions about the moods and passions of the nation. So far, many seem to be sitting this one out.
