Pittsburgh Post-Gazette — Pa. voters get their say
It’s primary day in Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Arkansas and Oregon. But the marquee matchup is in Pennsylvania, where liberal insurgent Rep. Joe Sestak has fought incumbent Arlen Specter to a tie in the polls despite Specter’s endorsements from President Obama, Vice President Biden and Gov. Ed Rendell, which he won by switching parties last year.
It’s been speculated that President Obama has ditched Specter, and certainly we see a lot of spin that suggests that the White House is distancing itself from an impending loss, a la Creigh Deeds in Virginia last year. But I doubt Obama could have turned the race in Specter’s favor.
Specter has been able to close a brief lead in the polls by Sestak by putting up Obama endorsement ads in heavy rotation targeted at the president’s 2008 coalition of blacks, young people and wealthy suburbanites.
But if Obama had come to Philadelphia over the weekend, it might have helped Specter with black voters and perhaps gotten a handful of college kids to the polls, but the race will be decided in the Philadelphia suburbs that have fallen out of love with the O Man and Western Pennsylvania where Obama was never very popular to begin with.
As Deeds, Jon Corzine and Martha Coakley found out, making your race about Obama does not help.
Specter’s best hope is to portray himself as an independent who serves Pennsylvania and no other political master. Sestak’s best hope is to capitalize on voter disappointment with Obama’s willingness to sacrifice core principles in order to achieve political goals, as illustrated by his deal with former Republican Specter. Sestak even claimed the White House criminally offered him a federal job to keep him out of the race.
Obama is no doubt glad that he did not have to go farther in supporting the political Nosferatu Specter, but I doubt Specter was very eager to be seen as the president’s man in Pennsylvania.
It will be hard enough for the eventual winner to shake the Obama label when facing former Rep. Pat Toomey in November
Writers Dennis Roddy and James O’Toole report from the campaign trail, where a persistent rain means low turnout, which means trouble for Specter.
Polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern.
“In a race this close the logistics of turnout operations could be pivotal. Mr. Specter, with the support of the state Democratic establishment and most of the state’s unions, inherited a ready-made Election Day apparatus. Mr. Sestak had to build one from scratch. Mr. Specter is hoping for a disproportionately heavy turnout from Philadelphia, particularly in the African-American wards where, polls suggest, he had heavy support.”
Louisville Courier-Journal — U.S. Senate candidates cover ground in late push
In Kentucky, Rand Paul, an ophthalmologist and son of libertarian hero, Republican Rep. Ron Paul, is getting ready to put a snot stomping on establishment-backed candidate Trey Grayson.
Much has been said about the significance of this election for the chance to replace retiring GOP Sen. Jim Bunning and what it says about the party, and some of it actually true. Certainly watching Grayson’s histrionics Monday as he complained that he was the victim of the news media showed us just how much things have changed.
But if Paul does prevail, who will he face?
Democrats have been going back and forth between Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo and Attorney General Jack Conway.
Mongiardo, 50, the son of the owner of a liquor store/Laundromat in the coal town of Hazard, became a doctor and went back home to practice. He got into politics a decade ago and has risen inside the party ranks at a time when Republicans were in retreat. As a state senator he nearly beat the irascible Bunning in 2004. He won the lieutenant governorship as part of a Democratic sweep in 2007 following a spate of ethics problems for the incumbent Republican governor.
Conway, 40, born a child of privilege to a Louisville lawyer, has been trying to get ahead in politics most of his life. He worked in the House while getting his law degree from George Washington University. He worked for a Democratic governor and ran for office until he settled down to make some money in 2003. He won the attorney generalship in 2007. He’s been running on a reform campaign and is the preferred candidate of the Louisville political gentry, which does not like Mongiardo’s hillbilly roots and bare-knuckled style.
Conway has closed in the polls late in the race, but Mongiardo has the organization and union support that will help him seal the deal today.
It’s been ugly and Conway has done some damage to Mongiardo’s reputation with claims about lavish expenses and political cronyism.
Most polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern, but some in the Central Time Zone will close an hour later.
Writer Joseph Gerth follows the money:
“Conway has used his advantage in fundraising and a withering ad campaign to draw close to Mongiardo, who has a stronger grass-roots organization, in the final days of the campaign. Both were hoping that last-minute swings through the state would push them over the top.
Conway raised more than $2.4million, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, and has since contributed several hundred thousand dollars of his own money to his campaign. Mongiardo raised nearly $1.8million.”
Arkansas Times — A tale of two races
Other than perhaps Harry Reid of Nevada, Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas is the most imperiled incumbent senator this year.
Her state has gotten more conservative in her two terns and her vote for President Obama’s national health program has been about as popular as the LSU Tigers.
While Lincoln was getting ready to fend off an all-out attack from the right, national liberal groups angry at Lincoln for her opposition to global warming fees, no-election union organizing and the “public option” in Obamacare, surged in to support the Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, contemplating taking a primary run at Lincoln from the Left.
As a result, Lincoln has had to put off her effort to move to the center in order to, with the help of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Wal-Mart, Tyson foods and others, fend of big labor, environmentalists and movement liberals who hate her guts.
There is a third candidate, D.C. Morrison, who is anti-Obamacare, anti-tax, pro-Constitution, pro-gun and pro-term limits. In a sign of how things are in Arkansas these days, he’s polled pretty steadily above 6 percent with that platform and spending less than $10,000.
If Lincoln doesn’t pull away early tonight, the danger will be that she won’t get to 50 percent and will have to prolong her battle with the strident Halter for another month before a runoff election. But since she has state establishment backing but not necessarily national Democratic support, she may be able to put Halter away.
For Republicans, Rep. John Boozman jumped in late to a crowded field and immediately surged to the fore. It’s been an ugly race, but Boozman, an ally of former Gov. Mike Huckabee, was spared some of the deep weirdness of the early months by staying out. While polls show him with a big lead, the June runoff is an even more real possibility for him than for Lincoln.
The two closest contenders to Boozman are Jim Holt, a former state Senator who used his status as a Baptist preacher to rail against the policies of Huckabee, who Holt thought too liberal and accused of corruption. Gilbert Baker, the former frontrunner, is a state senator and a much more conventional candidate.
If Boozman, whose campaign is managed by Huckabee’s daughter, has to face Holt in a runoff, things will get ugly. If he faces Baker, it will be no big deal.
Polls close at 8:30 p.m. Eastern.
Writer Gerard Mathews analyzes:
“Holt’s fund-raising efforts have not been as fruitful as expected and his most recent stunt — dressing up an old ambulance with flashing lights (which happens to be legally problematic) and labeling it the ‘Obamacare Repeal Unit’ — makes his candidacy look like more of a gimmick than a serious run for office.”
Johnstown Tribune-Democrat — Down to the wire
The special election to replace the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha, who ruled his Western Pennsylvania roost for 36 years is also today.
Republicans have tapped businessman Tim Burns while Democrats are backing Murtha aide Mark Critz.
Critz has run against the president’s health plan and cap and trade and has heralded his support for the military and firearms. He has promised to focus on bringing home the bacon the way his political mentor taught him to do.
Burns has run a “shake up Washington” campaign and said that Critz will be a foot soldier for Nancy Pelosi.
The splatter-shaped district is hard to poll, but surveys show a dead heat.
If Republicans pull off a win in this heavily Democratic district, expect lots of crowing about voter intensity, a tsunami in November, etc.
The Democratic establishment has come in hard for Critz, including a visit by former President Bill Clinton. Burns has gotten national money, but the hands-on help has been on the state level.
Writer Randy Griffith reports:
“State Attorney General Tom Corbett, a candidate for governor, headlined the afternoon rally and was joined by lieutenant governor hopeful Jim Cawley, a Bucks County commissioner. But much of the focus was on Washington County businessman Tim Burns and his run in today’s special election for the 12th District Congressional seat left vacant with the February death of John Murtha.
Votes for Burns ‘will send a message that is going to reverberate throughout the Congress that the people of the United States have said, ‘Enough,’ ‘ Corbett said.”
New York Times — Candidate’s Words on Vietnam Service Differ From History
Writer Raymond Hernandez blows up the Senate race in Connecticut where Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal was cruising to victory.
Incumbent Sen. Chris Dodd was heading to an almost certain defeat because of his relationship with Wall Street and a kooky presidential candidacy. Dodd retired, Blumenthal, 64, stepped forward and the seat went from a likely Republican gain to a certain Democratic retention.
But it seems that over a 20-year career in politics, Blumenthal went from saying that he had served in the Marines during the Vietnam era to simply saying that he had served in Vietnam. Watching the video of Blumenthal claiming Vietnam service and then getting all choked up over the mistreatment of veterans is pretty shocking stuff.
Blumenthal got five educational and professional deferments, including one serving the national interest as assistant to Washington Post publisher Katherine Graham.
Blumenthal was eventually able to get a coveted spot in the Marine reserve unit stationed in Washington. His duties included the Toys for Tots program and cleanup at a camp for school kids.
It makes George W. Bush’s time in the Texas Air Guard look like “Flight of the Intruder.”
One of the two leading Republicans who had been, up to now, vying for the chance to get creamed by Blumenthal is former Rep. Rob Simmons. Simmons actually served in Vietnam and was a special ops guy who saw plenty of combat and is already hanging this around his neck pretty well.
Blumenthal’s response has been poor. The candidate fumbled for answers and denied deceiving. His campaign manger just sounds foolish.
“But Mr. Blumenthal’s campaign manager, Mindy Myers, said Monday that any suggestion that he was ducking the war was unfounded, saying he was engaged in important work. When he worked for Ms. Graham, for example, he helped teach children in a public school in the Anacostia section of Washington, for a project she had started there.
‘It’s flat wrong to imply that Richard Blumenthal’s decisions to take a Fiske Fellowship, teach inner-city schoolchildren and work in the White House for Daniel Patrick Moynihan were decisions to avoid service when in fact, while still eligible for a deferment, he chose to enlist in the Marine Corps Reserves and completed six months of service at Parris Island, S.C., and then six years of service in the Reserves.’”
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