Here’s a simple chart to visualize what’s been happening in the Democratic primaries and caucuses. It shows the percentage of the total vote that has been going to Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders nationally and in the contests in the South (defined as the 11 states of the Confederacy plus West Virginia, Kentucky and Oklahoma) and in the North (the rest of the country).

Clinton has been winning by 2-1 margins in the South, margins she largely owes to black voters, who make up about half the Democratic electorate in many states and at least one-quarter everywhere else but Oklahoma (the one Southern state Sanders carried). But — and I don’t remember anyone predicting this, certainly I didn’t — Sanders is beating Clinton in the North.