It was assumed pretty early on that the Eastern Rhode Island seat of retiring Rep. Patrick Kennedy, D-R.I., would go straight to the Democrats. They found a strong candidate — Mayor David Cicilline — and the Republicans fielded a weaker one who has run a lackluster campaign. Plus, it’s Rhode Island, for crying out loud. Republicans can win — even conservatives, like Gov. Don Carcieri, can win — but only on occasion.

Suddenly, Public Opinion Strategies has produced a Republican-commissioned poll showing Republican John Loughlin tied with Cicilline at 41 percent, and leading by five points among “those most likely to vote.” Apply a five-point deduction for the fact that it’s a partisan poll, and you’ve still got a real race on your hands where none was expected.