Let’s just say the aggressive social distancing measures are effective in slowing down the spread of the coronavirus in the coming weeks and months. At what point do things return back to normal?
That’s the question on the top of everybody’s mind. It’s what governments at all levels are struggling to get a handle on. It’s what schools and parents are trying to come to grips with. It’s what sports leagues and airlines and restaurants and hotels need to know. It’s what Wall Street investors and political pundits are all trying to figure out.
But the truth is, nobody knows when exactly this all ends.
It seems unlikely, for instance, that at the first sign that the number of cases has plateaued, suddenly, we’ll go back to crowding into baseball stadiums, airports, bars, and restaurants as if nothing happened. People, and public officials, would likely be worried that a sudden return to life as it was could lead to another spike in cases. Public health officials have been understandably unwilling to commit to a specific timeline.
On Monday, when unveiling drastic measures suggesting gatherings be limited to no more than 10 people, Anthony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health emphasized that the draconian measures would only be for 15 days at first, though he acknowledged it could be longer. The day before that, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued guidance that said people should limit themselves to gatherings of no more than 50 for the next eight weeks.
So we can count on hunkering down for March at a minimum, and likely in some way into April and May. But what about after that?
President Trump on Monday said that we could be looking at July or August until things peter out.
Former Food and Drug Administration commissioner Scott Gottleib has made the point that even if the coronavirus dies down over the summer, we should be bracing for it to come back in the fall.
The Imperial College of London raised a lot of eyebrows when researchers suggested that social distancing measures may need to be in place for 18 months or more, however long it takes to develop a vaccine. “The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package — or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission — will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) — given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed,” researchers concluded.
The first vaccine trial began this week, which is a breakneck pace for those familiar with drug development. It will take at least a year to test. So, even if that test goes well and they fast-track it to market without the usual follow-up testing, allowing time for manufacture and distribution, we’re looking well into next year until the first vaccine becomes widely available. Though the FDA will relax regulations as much as possible, they also don’t want to be pumping tens of millions of people with injections if they have doubts about safety.
With all of this said, I suspect that between now and the development of a vaccine, we’ll go through various phases of disruption. There may not be a moment in which things fully go back to “normal,” but life also won’t be as restricted as it is now.
Keep in mind that if we’re talking about a longer 18-month time frame, a lot of the issues that have hampered the U.S. response and that have caused early problems will be addressed.
Even if the inadequacy of testing doesn’t get resolved this week, certainly it will be resolved over that longer time span. Having readily available testing will make it easier to identify cases and isolate them before the virus spreads rapidly, helping to limit future outbreaks.
Over a longer time frame, the market will respond by ramping up production of masks, gloves, ventilators, respirators, and other medical equipment. That will help hospitals build up surge capacity to handle spikes in cases. The data we have show that the fatality rate rises significantly once the medical system reaches its capacity, so increasing capacity will give public officials the ability to ease certain restrictions.
While medical staff may present challenges since they take longer to train, having more protective gear and more access to testing will mean that fewer staff will be forced to quarantine, which is currently a huge concern for hospitals trying to maintain adequate staffing levels.
Even before a vaccine, there also may be various treatments and medicines that are found to reduce the severity of the disease, thus limiting hospitalizations and fatalities.
Also, the economy will adjust in other ways. Grocery stores will have plenty of toilet paper, and manufacturers will be able to meet the demand for hand sanitizer. Delivery services will have more employees, so the wait times for groceries will be smaller. Already, some grocery stores have started offering special hours for just older and more vulnerable populations to shop, allowing younger people to go to the grocery store without unwittingly transmitting the disease to somebody more vulnerable. Universal Studios has begun making current theatrical releases immediately available on demand, and my guess is we’ll see more of that.
Over time, we may also adopt practices, such as in Singapore, that include temperature checks when entering buildings. Bars and restaurants may reopen with stricter maximum capacity requirements.
So my guess is that we’re looking at a longer-term disruption than just a few weeks and that it’s going to be a long time before things return to the way they were before the onset of the coronavirus. But we aren’t going to be at this level of lockdown for the next year and a half.
