As the number of new cases of the coronavirus has begun to plateau, there has been an active debate about the circumstances under which the economy can begin to reopen. With 22 million Americans and counting having lost their jobs, there’s an obvious urgency to get things moving again. But among the many problems for businesses hoping to reopen, one issue is likely insurmountable: Schools are currently closed in every state, and most states have already announced closures through the end of the academic year.
In the absence of schools, there’s simply no way for a large number of people to work. This is especially true given that in any state where schools are closed, other day care options are also closed. And even if somehow the government were willing to provide day care subsidies, there is simply no way to scale up the already strained U.S. child care system to absorb the tens of millions of children who will be out of school.
Schools are currently closed in every state, according to data compiled by Education Week. An additional 32 states, plus the District of Columbia, have already ordered or recommended that schools close through the remainder of the academic year. That number is certain to grow, as a number of states likely to close schools for the rest of the school year have preferred to wait and see and delay such an announcement until the last moment possible. For instance, New York, New Jersey, and Maryland technically have only announced school closures through May 15. But it’s hard to envision a scenario in which they reopen.
As the publication notes, “School closures due to coronavirus have impacted at least 124,000 U.S. public and private schools and affected at least 55.1 million students.”
Parents of high school students might be able to leave their children unsupervised. But while parents might leave older elementary school-aged children, say 10-year-olds, alone for stretches of time, they aren’t likely going to want to leave them unsupervised during five workdays a week unless they want them to play video games and stream TV all day.
So it’s difficult to see how things get back to any semblance of normalcy until some point in June, when (maybe) summer camps and other day care options will be allowed to open after the traditional school year would have ended.
It’s worth adding that many of those calling for a reopening of the economy are also arguing that this should be done by isolating older people and those with medical conditions. The White House recommendations for reopening the country call for a three-phase approach. In the first two phases, “all vulnerable individuals” are asked to continue sheltering in place. They define vulnerable as those meeting the following categories:
2. Individuals with serious underlying health conditions, including high blood pressure, chronic lung disease, diabetes, obesity, asthma, and those whose immune system is compromised such as by chemotherapy for cancer and other conditions requiring such therapy.
Just to take one of those conditions, 40% of Americans are obese, according to the CDC. So if you also focus on those other conditions and then add parents with young children to the list, those able to go back into a workplace dwindle considerably. And that doesn’t even take into account multigenerational homes or those who serve as caregivers to vulnerable individuals.
Either way, those clamoring to reopen the economy need to explain how they’d address the day care challenges created by the closure of schools.
