In his “great and unmatched wisdom,” President Trump has opened the Pandora’s box that is Turkey.
Within 72 hours of U.S. withdrawal in northern Syria, Turkish forces moved into the region and attacked our Kurdish allies. Trump claimed he could contain Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, threatening to tank Turkey’s economy if Erdoğan ordered an attack without U.S. approval. And Erdoğan responded in kind, threatening to release millions of Syrian refugees into Europe if the West labeled Turkey’s military incursion as an occupation.
“We will open the gates and send 3.6 million refugees your way,” Erdoğan said in a speech yesterday.
This is exactly the kind of threat Trump’s national security and military advisers warned him about. Erdoğan is an unpredictable, authoritarian ruler who would extend his reach to every corner of the Middle East if given the chance.
This isn’t the first time Trump has underestimated Erdoğan. Last year, he tried to strong-arm Erdoğan into releasing an imprisoned American pastor, holding economic sanctions, and public rebukes over Erdoğan’s head in an attempt to force him to cooperate. It took nearly four months before Erdoğan finally caved, and he only did so after demonizing the United States and making himself out to be the victim.
“[Turkey] will not surrender to those who act like a strategic partner but make us a strategic target,” Erdogan said last year.
Erdoğan’s feud with the Western powers has cost Turkey dearly. But Erdoğan has been able to use the economic turmoil for his own benefit, focusing his country’s anger on the foreign adversaries who want to “break Turkey’s back” and away from his tightening grip on the nation’s government. Erdoğan has convinced his people that they’re not just experiencing an “economic crisis,” but acts of “economic warfare by the United States,” Soli Ozel, a professor of international relations at Kadir Has University in Istanbul, told the Washington Post.
Erdoğan has laid a trap for Trump. By pulling out of Syria, Trump gave Erdoğan the green light to reenter northern Syria, slaughter the Kurds, and turn a blind eye to terrorism in the region. And now if Trump or any other Western power tries to rein him in, Erdoğan will cry foul and rally other Middle Eastern countries behind him.
This is a disaster of Trump’s own making. It’s time he puts Erdoğan in his place for good.
