The Senate’s opening arguments have now concluded, which means the next step is a vote on whether to call impeachment trial witnesses. As of right now, it looks like a majority of senators will vote in favor of additional testimony.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell reportedly told his party this week he didn’t have the votes to block the Democrats from subpoenaing former national security adviser John Bolton or acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney. Bolton has already agreed to testify if asked, and Mulvaney will almost certainly reject the Senate’s subpoena and cite executive privilege. This means we could hear from Bolton as soon as next week.
The White House is still optimistic that McConnell can whip up the necessary votes by Friday. “We are still in the game,” one official said. But the report this weekend detailing Bolton’s missing link pushed the vote count in the Democrats’ favor, one Senate aide told me. The firsthand nature of Bolton’s account has made it even more consequential, and thus, the vote count has shifted.
But it could easily shift again. McConnell is actively working to keep his party unified, and during the next two days of questioning, Republicans hope to turn the attention back to Bolton and portray his testimony as unnecessary and even irrelevant. “How are we supposed to get the proof of what’s in the president’s head?” asked deputy White House counsel Patrick Philbin.
Still, McConnell will almost certainly lose Sens. Susan Collins and Mitt Romney during the vote on trial witnesses. But Democrats need four Republican votes total. They’re eyeing Sen. Lisa Murkowski as a third, and now the White House is concerned it could lose Pat Toomey and Rob Portman, too.
Meanwhile, some Democrats, namely, the presidential candidates who have been kept off the campaign trail because of the impeachment trial, are beginning to worry that a prolonged trial could hurt more than help. The Iowa and New Hampshire caucuses are only a few weeks away, and every day spent in Washington, D.C., is a day lost. Sens. Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren — both of whom need to perform well in the caucuses to remain in the race — are beginning to feel that pressure.
Democrats also know that if they call Bolton, the Republicans will almost certainly subpoena the anonymous Ukraine whistleblower and/or Hunter Biden. This presents an uncontrollable factor that Democrats are hesitant to face. And most Democrats understand that even if Bolton were to testify, they would not be able to reach a two-thirds supermajority to convict and remove Trump from office.
So, if the result is going to be an acquittal no matter what, the question for Democrats now becomes: Is Bolton worth it?
It’s still possible both parties could reach some sort of agreement. Both sides have a vested interest in concluding this trial as soon as possible, though the Democrats are too stubborn to admit as much. One option, floated by Sen. James Lankford and supported by Sen. Lindsey Graham, would make Bolton’s unreleased memoir available to the Senate in a classified setting for review. The senators who care to see what Bolton knows would thus be able to do so but not on the trial’s clock.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has so far rejected this proposal, but given that the other option is allowing Republicans to call Hunter Biden, Schumer might just change his mind. Come Friday, we’ll know one way or the other.
