For the first time in five months, jobless claims in the United States dipped below 1 million last week, according to a new report by the Department of Labor.
This is good news, especially when coupled with another report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that found more than 1.8 million jobs were added to the economy in July. Both of these reports suggest that the U.S. is recovering from the coronavirus shutdown, albeit slowly. But as long as that recovery holds steady, a long-lasting recession seems unlikely — for now, at least.
That could change. Economists have been claiming since June that the U.S. is in a recession, given its massive GDP losses this past quarter. And several states, most of them in the Sun Belt, have been reintroducing restrictions as the coronavirus rears its head once again. As a result, many companies have frozen the hiring process, and countless businesses in the service industry have closed their doors.
Overall, signs of an economic rebound are evident — though perhaps not the most optimistic, V-shaped version of the recovery that economists hoped for. We’ve already recovered roughly 40% of the employment losses incurred in the shutdown, as Tiana Lowe explained last week. Compare that to the Great Recession: Jobless claims weren’t as high as they are now, but it still took nearly five years for claims to come back down to what they had been before the recession’s peak in 2009.
This week’s numbers suggest we’re already on track for a faster recovery. And as our new normal becomes, well, normal, these recent gains should continue apace.
