Since it launched its full-scale invasion of
Ukraine
a year ago,
Russia
has tried to scare the West into withholding military assistance to Kyiv. The core Kremlin assertion is that NATO involvement in Ukraine will precipitate World War III and result in mass casualties in the West. In reality, such a prospect is remote.
Russian scaremongering has been uncritically repeated by some Western officials, including President
Joe Biden
, who reportedly warned Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky that World War III had to be avoided. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Antony Blinken has claimed that Kyiv’s attempts to retake Crimea could lead to a “wider Russian response,” thus implying military attacks on Western targets.
Such alarmist messages can undermine Allied unity and weaken Ukraine’s resolve by depicting Russia as a major conventional threat. In fact, during the past year, the Russian military has been decimated in Ukraine. Western intelligence services estimate that 250,000 troops have been killed or wounded and a number of elite fighting units have been incapacitated. The United Kingdom’s Defense Ministry has concluded that Moscow has deployed the bulk of its military in Ukraine without any significant advances. It now relies on artillery barrages and mass infantry assaults by untrained conscripts to achieve minimal battlefield gains.
WHAT IS THE NEW START TREATY BETWEEN US AND RUSSIA THAT PUTIN JUST SUSPENDED
The notion that Russia’s military can escalate its attack on Ukraine into a world war is hyperbole intended to disarm Western leaders and frighten the public. As an indication of its waning capabilities, Russia has depleted its military deployments in several regions of the country, including along the Norwegian, Finnish, and Chinese borders, and is in no position to mount any sustained offensive against NATO.
Russia’s military is incapable even of launching a major new assault In Ukraine without a full-scale mobilization that would place the economy on a war footing. Russian President Vladimir Putin is fearful of such a step as it would demolish the myth of a restricted “special military operation” and provoke more significant public resistance. Although Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu declared an intent to increase the total number of troops from 1.15 million to 1.5 million, attempts to implement such plans in the midst of tightening economic sanctions and falling energy revenues would capsize the Russian budget.
World War III is also not feasible because Russia has no loyal allies that would fight alongside it in a conflict with the West. China will avoid any direct confrontation with NATO while it plans to benefit from Russia’s demise. The Central Asian states have already distanced themselves from Moscow and tacitly support Ukraine’s integrity. And the only remaining allies, such as Belarus and Iran, will make little ultimate difference to Russia’s war efforts.
The myth of World War III is a continuation of the cult of World War II. Moscow depicts Russia as the primary victor in the last global conflagration while hiding the fact that it was closely allied with Nazi Germany in the first two years of the war and collaborated in invading neighboring European countries and supplying fuel and material for the Nazi war machine. Contrary to Moscow’s propaganda, Russia was one of the victors in WWII because the United States and other allies provided substantial economic and military assistance and fought the Germans on several European fronts. No country will now help Russia survive its economic and military disasters because they will not want to be dragged into any confrontations with a much stronger Western-led alliance. And when Ukraine liberates Crimea, the Kremlin will lose the core rationale for its expansionist policies, and Russia will turn inward to face an existential struggle as a failed imperial state.
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Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, D.C. His new book is
Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture
.
