American deterrence is rapidly eroding in the
Middle East
.
Last week, the Pentagon announced that a squadron of A-10 attack aircraft would be deploying to the Middle East ahead of their scheduled deployment. The Pentagon has also ordered a carrier strike group to remain in the region. This bolstering of America’s
military
presence in the Middle East comes amid heightened tensions. The previous week, Iranian-backed proxies
launched
several attacks on U.S. bases in Syria, killing a contractor and wounding five U.S. service members and another contractor.
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The recent deployments “demonstrate the United States’s ability to rapidly reposition forces across the globe and underscores that all necessary measures will be taken to defend U.S. forces,” according to Lt. Col. Phil Ventura, Pentagon spokesman. However, the real takeaway is that the U.S. is
losing
its ability to deter its enemies. The problem has been building steadily.
Under questioning by Sen.
Tom Cotton
(R-AR), Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin recently admitted that Iran and its proxies have launched 83 attacks against U.S. forces in Iran and Syria since
Joe Biden
was sworn in as president. By contrast, by Austin’s own admission, the U.S. has responded with strikes only four times. “What kind of signal does this send to Iran that they can attack us 83 times since Joe Biden has become president and we only respond with four?” Cotton
asked
.
Cotton’s question, unfortunately, answers itself. The Islamic Republic of Iran, the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism, is
undeterred
. Indeed, Tehran has been chipping away at America’s military dominance for years.
On Jan. 17, 2022, the Houthis, Iran’s Yemen-based proxy, launched an attack on an oil facility in the United Arab Emirates near al Dhafra Air Base, which hosts a U.S. Air Force wing. An American missile defense system successfully intercepted an Iranian-made ballistic missile. But several drones, which were launched simultaneously, got through and killed three people. Additional attacks followed, with the American-built Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system blocking many of the missiles. Yet Iran’s reliance on both missiles and
drones
has given the regime the ability to project power from the deserts of the Middle East to the forests of Ukraine.
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Iran’s growing military advantage is shifting the balance of power in the region — a change that our allies feel
acutely
. Iran’s growing military might, coupled with a U.S. preference for inaction, has resulted in improving
relations
between America’s Gulf allies, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and China, which seems better positioned to exert influence on Tehran.
Decline, the late writer Charles Krauthammer famously observed, is a choice. And in the Middle East, the U.S. seems to be ceding a key region without a fight. To restore deterrence, the U.S. must first restore its credibility. And that will require rethinking strategy, not just deploying a squadron of aircraft.
Sean Durns writer is a senior research analyst for CAMERA, the 65,000-member, Boston-based Committee for Accuracy in Middle East Reporting and Analysis.
