Michael Bloomberg’s 2020 campaign manager is going to find out the hard way that the base is not interested so much in a candidate who will speak hard truths as it is interested in someone who will humor its wildest anti-Trump fantasies.
Kevin Sheekey argued this week that his employer, the former mayor of New York City, is the man to beat President Trump, given that the House’s impeachment proceedings are making it more likely Trump wins reelection.
He has a point, but he is not going to win his boss any Democratic love by throwing cold water on the party’s hopes and dreams.
“I worry a lot that we’re setting ourselves up here to impeachment, acquittal, and reelection,” Sheekey said Wednesday in an interview with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour. “You know, there are, listen, we’re all outraged by what is going on. Anyone who looks at those things, you should be outraged by what this president has done. Except it’s not helping in the places where this election will ultimately be decided.”
He added, “There are about 31 congressional districts in this country that are swing districts … But if you’re in one of those districts today and you’re a moderate member of Congress, almost all of them would tell you today, these impeachment hearings are threatening their reelection. Now, if you think about that, those are the districts too where we tilt the presidential election, which, by definition, it means, hey, listen, these impeachment proceedings are making the president’s reelection more likely, not less likely.”
Sheekey is not wrong. Impeachment may be popular with the Democratic base, as 84% say they support it, according to polling averages collected by FiveThirtyEight. But it is also a major risk for Democrats and there are already signs it may backfire on them in a big way.
First, the impeachment gambit is sure to inflame and enrage Trump’s base, motivating them to seek revenge at the polls in 2020. So Democrats need to move general opinion enough to affect the 2020 elections in their favor (they are not going to get enough Republican senators to defect, so removal is out of the question). But only 44% of independents now say they support impeachment, according to FiveThirtyEight, and that is based on surveys conducted after the televised hearings. There are additional signals that this may all blow up on Democrats, including a couple of surveys showing Trump’s approval numbers actually improving amid the House’s impeachment proceedings into his attempts to pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky into investigating the Bidens’ shady business dealings in Ukraine.
A new Marquette Law School survey, for example, shows Trump winning Wisconsin in hypothetical matchups against Joe Biden (47 to 44), Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont (48 to 45) and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts (48 to 43), and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg (47 to 39). The survey marks not just the first time this year that a credible polling firm has released data showing Trump beating Biden in Wisconsin, but it shows also a gradual decline in support for the top-tier 2020 Democratic candidates. It also shows Trump’s reelection numbers improving after two televised impeachment hearings.
On Wednesday, Amanpour noted the obvious in response to Sheekey’s impeachment remarks.
“Many Democrats will not like to hear that,” she said.
“Listen,” said Sheekey, “I think the president should be impeached. I think, fundamentally, he has violated his constitutional responsibilities. But, you know, back to those districts, hey, listen, Mike Bloomberg took on in its scale in a way that no one else has, changing congressional districts around the country that were Republican districts.”
Again, he is not wrong! Also, his warning is almost certainly going to fall on deaf ears. Congratulations, Sheekey. You are the Cassandra of 2020.
