The public generally looks at the uproar over classified documents in two ways. One is about intent: Were papers simply misfiled or was there deeper culpability? The other is to treat any breach of the protocols for classified papers, intentional or accidental, as an inherently serious endangerment of U.S.
national security
.
This first view concludes that political careers should not be ended and people should not be sent to prison because classified papers were stored on private premises by elected officials who once had legal access to them. The solution, they say, is to clean up the mess and tighten the rules. If there is deeper culpability, such as selling secrets or handing over documents to foreign countries, then it becomes an entirely different matter. The second view is tougher. It maintains that storing classified documents is a big deal, which is the basis of strict federal laws on the subject. Every nation has an undeniable interest in keeping classified information under wraps.
Still, cases involving classified documents are complex. Politics make them impossibly thorny. That’s caused uncertainties for two U.S. presidents,
Joe Biden
and
Donald Trump
, as well as for a former vice president,
Mike Pence
, who may be presidential candidates next year. But what are the political impacts?
Biden’s mishandling of documents has taken away from Democrats an issue they could have used against Trump. It’s also causing some Democrats to quietly hope that Biden has reached a tipping point that will keep him from running again. Plenty of Democrats would rather their party nominate a younger candidate without the scars of a half-century in politics.
For Trump, and to many of his supporters, the documents case is just one more witch hunt and contrived controversy. While it could turn out to be a serious legal problem for him, encompassing a range of possible offenses, the politics are less clear now that Biden is also in hot water.
To measure the initial impact of these cases, let’s look at the polling.
Biden’s personal rating was 49% favorable and 49% unfavorable right before the first public announcement that he had stored classified documents at a private office. This
poll
, conducted by the Economist-YouGov, was taken at a good time for Biden; Democrats had beaten expectations in the midterm elections, inflation was easing, and Republicans were split over the House speaker’s election. But two weeks later, after more documents were found, Biden’s favorable
rating
dropped 5 points (to 44%), and his unfavorable rating went up 4 points (to 53%).
Trump’s personal
rating
was 41% favorable and 55% unfavorable right before the FBI executed a search warrant on Mar-a-Lago. Two weeks later, his favorable
rating
slipped a point (to 40%), and his unfavorable rating increased 2 points (to 57%). The latest
NBC poll
finds that 67% of people nationwide find it “concerning” that Biden and Trump had classified government documents stored in private places. When looking at the intensity of opinions, 33% say Biden’s situation is “very concerning,” while 36% say Trump’s situation is “very concerning.”
A recent
CNN survey
shows that 36% say Biden did something “illegal,” and another 45% say what he did was “unethical but not illegal.” It also shows that 54% believe Trump did something “illegal,” and another 31% say it was “unethical but not illegal.”
As cases related to the mishandling of classified documents unfold, one thing is sure: It’s a thicket nobody wants to be in, especially if you’re running for president in 2024.
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Ron Faucheux is a nonpartisan political analyst, pollster, and writer. He publishes
LunchtimePolitics.com
, a nationwide newsletter on polls and public opinion.
