Joe Biden has consistently led the Democratic field, and for a long time he was the only candidate who polled higher than President Trump as well.
The former vice president is still in the lead nationally, but he’s no longer the only candidate who can compete with Trump, according to a new CNN poll. In fact, every one of the top five Democratic candidates polled higher than Trump in CNN’s survey, whose sample of registered voters was deliberately weighted to favor key swing states.
New head-to-heads in national @CNN poll just out:
Biden 53%, Trump 44%
Bloomberg 52%, Trump 43%
Sanders 52%, Trump 45%
Warren 50%, Trump 45%
Buttigieg 49%, Trump 45%
Klobuchar 48%, Trump 45%— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) January 22, 2020
The takeaway here is that Trump is beatable, but the topline result ignores his strongest point. CNN admits that out of all the voters surveyed, the most enthusiastic ones lean in Trump’s direction in every single matchup. The likely voter screen, whenever pollsters begin to apply it, is likely to improve Trump’s numbers.
Trump’s ability to generate enthusiasm should not be underestimated. His base is loyal and will not neglect to vote. Republicans are unified around him and his presidency. And when it comes to moderate and independent voters in the swing states, Trump has the economy working for him. It doesn’t mean they will all vote for him, but it will prevent them from rising up in an angry rebellion against him.
Trump’s economic approval ratings will be hard to beat. Unemployment is at a 50-year low, investors are no longer concerned about an impending recession, and the Rust Belt is beginning to make a strong comeback after years of stagnation. The Democratic candidates will try to argue that these gains have been limited to the very top, but all the data coming out suggests the opposite. Lower and middle-class voters’ finances have benefited from the Trump presidency, and it’s unlikely they’ll forget that come November.
On the surface, Biden especially has a good chance at beating Trump, as my colleague Phil Klein wrote. But Trump’s ability to tap into the enthusiasm and loyalty of a wide range of voters will be difficult to replicate. The pollsters lost sight of this in 2016, and they’d be wise not to do so again.
