MOBILE, Alabama — If reports are correct that former Attorney General Jeff Sessions will forcefully defend President Trump’s Ukraine-related actions when Sessions enters the Senate race in Alabama, it opens an odd avenue in the race for another candidate to exploit.
So far, all the Republicans in the multicandidate field have gone to almost embarrassing lengths to see who can be the Trumpiest. Perhaps one of them should reconsider. The risky but potentially effective play would be for one to say that new testimony convinces him the impeachment proceeding is warranted, for open-minded analysis of all relevant facts, even if the case for impeachment remains as of yet unproven.
It helps that this also is the most appropriate stance and that Sessions will be damaging his credibility by not taking it himself. For purposes of pure political analysis, though, let’s set aside what’s ethically right and look at why this could be a surprisingly smart political play.
An insightful news analysis that originally ran in Inside Alabama Politics lays out poll numbers tracking closely what I have heard through my reliable Alabama political grapevine. In essence, Sessions is almost certainly assured a place in a Republican primary runoff, with the battle being for the second runoff spot. The question for other candidates is, how to get there?
Trump is hugely popular among Alabama Republicans. Every piece of private and public information available tells me a vast majority of the state’s GOP voters oppose holding any sort of impeachment proceedings. Still, consider: Virtually everywhere in the country, around 10% of Republicans feel strongly otherwise. Appalled by Trump’s behavior, this smallish but steady minority is desperate for someone to show independence and integrity to buck the party line. Any candidate who does so would be almost guaranteed to lock down the votes of that 10% — who, it stands to reason, now are among the “undecided” voters in Alabama.
The question then becomes, can the candidate who does this still hold whatever percentage of the Republican electorate that already supports him, or will his current supporters abandon him if they think he is abandoning Trump? My sense, from long observation of these candidates, is that the personal base of each, with the possible exception of former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville, is strong. They are well-known. If one is garnering, say, 12% in the polls, then probably 10 of that 12 will stick with them even if they declare an open mind on Trump.
So, 10% of solid personal support plus another 10% of the “please let’s get the truth on Trump-Ukraine” support would get such a candidate to 20%. That could be a very important number.
Remember, the big goal is making the runoff in the first place. To win a Senate seat, one must first be the party nominee. To be the nominee, a candidate first must qualify for the two-man runoff. Worry about winning the runoff later because it’s months away; right now, just get there.
Sessions is virtually guaranteed at least 30% of the vote. Former Judge Roy Moore will receive something between 15-20% no matter what. That leaves five other candidates to vie over no more than 55% of the electorate. Suddenly, 20% looks good.
The candidate could explain his newly open mind on impeachment quite cogently by noting that this week alone testimony from three diplomats, plus an incriminating tweet from Trump’s personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani, plus reports of damaging testimony to come from former national security adviser John Bolton, all make the case against Trump suddenly stronger. The candidate could say the statesmanlike thing to do is to watch and wait, even if still giving the president the benefit of most doubts.
Sometimes a double-bank shot works. Sometimes it’s the only available play. Why not try it?
