If Donald Trump wins Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, and Iowa, while Joe Biden wins Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada, we could have a 269 to 269 Electoral College tie, depending on who wins Maine’s and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional Districts.
Even if one candidate “earns” 270 or 271 electoral votes, a faithless elector or two could deny that candidate a win when the Electoral College meets Dec. 14.
If that happens, the presidential election goes to the House in January, after the new members are sworn in. But the House doesn’t vote normally. Instead, each state delegation gets one vote. Current understanding of the law is that it takes a majority of the delegation to count as a vote for one candidate or another. The Constitution specifies that it takes 26 states for either candidate to win.
This is where things get fun.
Currently, Republicans hold a majority in 26 state delegations, while Democrats have a majority in 22 state delegations. In Michigan and Pennsylvania, neither party has a majority. But again, the current House doesn’t get to vote — the new House will. So if Democrats can take away the Republican majority in just one state, they can reduce Republicans down to 25 states and prevent Trump from being elected in the House.
Where could they do that?
Florida and Wisconsin are very slim GOP majorities, but the Democratic chances of picking up those delegations look to be about 0% at this hour.
So Democrats’ best chances are the tiny states with only one member. Specifically, Don Young, an elderly Republican, is facing a serious challenge from Democrat Alyse Galvin.
And in Montana, there’s an open seat, and Republican state Auditor Matt Rosendale is a slight favorite over Democrat Kathleen Williams.
If Galvin or Williams wins, and Republicans don’t pick up another state (say, Michigan), then Republicans would not have a majority of state delegations.
Could Democrats get to 26 delegations?
It’s harder but doable. If they picked up a seat each in Montana, Pennsylvania (currently split 50-50), Alaska, and Michigan, they would be at 26 states and could thus elect Biden from the House.
If neither party had 26 states, they would either have to cut a deal of some sort (though they can choose only among the top three recipients of electoral votes), or the vice president would become acting president.
If nobody has 270 Electoral Votes for vice president, the Senate chooses the VP. If every Senate race ended as it is now, at 11:50 p.m. on election night, the Senate would be 50-49, Democrats, with a runoff in Georgia to be held Jan. 5.
