President Trump will have to master a tough balancing act in his dealings with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the White House on Wednesday. Erdogan is massacring American friends and betraying Turkey’s NATO allies. But Turkey remains an important American partner.
Trump must thus mitigate the negatives and bolster the positives in the United States-Turkey relationship.
We can hope that relationship will recover over time as the Turkish opposition experiences its growing reemergence. Still, Trump can bet on that. He must act now to improve this relationship.
The first issue Trump must address is the personality of his rather strange partner. To reduce the risk of Erdogan having a temper tantrum, Trump should start off on the positives. That means offering proposals for mutual benefit.
One area for compromise is the impending U.S. development of oil fields in eastern Syria. While benefiting the Sunni-Arab tribes and Kurdish peoples in that area, the oil fields also offer Turkey a valuable tariff opportunity to earn billions of dollars. Advancing on that economic theme, Trump should also seek Erdogan’s buy-in for U.S.-Turkey talks to reduce trade barriers. Bilateral trade stands at about $10 billion each way each year. But if barriers to entry are reduced, Turkey would benefit greatly.
Then onto the nitty-gritty.
First up, Turkey’s continuing offensive in northern Syria. While Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ceasefire has prevented a Turkish incursion deeper into Syria, Turkish forces continue to mistreat and murder Kurdish civilians. With Putin now dominating Erdogan’s foreign policy contemplation, the risk of new escalation is significant. Trump should warn Erdogan that he will protect America’s Kurdish allies in areas beyond the ceasefire deconfliction zone. He should make clear that if Turkish forces test his warning, they will face American wrath. This principled stance is crucial not simply for its moral and strategic essence but in giving Erdogan advanced notice that Trump is not, as Erdogan presently assumes, distracted and weak. If America is to break Turkey away from Putin’s grip, we must remind Erdogan that America has resolve.
Next, considering Erdogan’s warning to the European Union on Tuesday that he will release Islamic State fighters onto their soil if they do not bend to his wishes, Trump should tell Erdogan that he’ll hold him accountable for any ISIS fighters that Turkey releases. Warning the Europeans, Erdogan noted that Turkey, thanks to its invasion of northern Syria, now “controls [ISIS fighters] in Syria.” Some Americans might say that Europeans are the ones who will have to deal with ISIS fighters and that it’s thus up to them to persuade Erdogan.
Such arguments are delusional. ISIS operatives place a high priority on American targets around the world, including in Europe. If the American-European partnership stands for anything, it stands for counterterrorism cooperation.
Then there’s the Russia problem. With Erdogan pressing ahead to purchase Russia’s highly advanced S-400 air defense system, the U.S. has had to suspend delivery of Turkey’s F-35 fighter jets. Unfortunately, President Trump sees the F-35 as a business deal that shouldn’t be delayed. Trump should make clear to Erdogan that if he presses ahead with the S-400, the U.S. will have no choice but to limit Turkey’s engagement with NATO and its access to advanced U.S. military equipment. The S-400 poses a direct threat to American and allied aircrews. If Turkey gets the F-35 and the S-400, Russian intelligence will use the S-400 to analyze the F-35’s data signatures, operational capabilities, and other key warfighting indicators.
Finally, there’s the Fethullah Gulen challenge. A Turkish exile living in the U.S., Gulen is blamed by Erdogan for supposedly fomenting a coup attempt. But absent compelling and objective evidence that Gulen is guilty of crimes, Trump must hold firm to the longstanding principle that America does not sacrifice political dissidents simply to keep their authoritarian enemies happy. It’s that simple.
Wednesday’s meeting will be a big challenge for Trump. But he has every reason to deal with Erdogan confidently and directly. Absent that choice, U.S.-Turkey relations will continue declining, to both nations’ detriment.
