If Michael Bloomberg actually decides to launch a late bid for the 2020 Democratic nomination, the FEC may want to launch an investigation, because it would be a massive gift to Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s campaign.
Bloomberg has been flirting with the idea of running for president as a Democrat for months, but now the New York Times is reporting he’s actually having staffers move to get him on the ballot for the Alabama primary, which has one of the early filing deadlines for candidates. Ostensibly, he’s been watching the nomination battle play out, sees an elderly and bumbling Joe Biden on one hand and a bunch of leftists proposing insane things that could make them unelectable on the other hand, and is getting tempted.
If Bloomberg does run, especially this late, he’d have no path to the nomination. He’s actually nine months older than Biden. The lifelong Democrat who turned Republican because it was a clearer path to becoming mayor in 2001, then became an independent, and then a Democrat again, would have great difficulty making his case to the modern Democratic electorate. His chances of gaining support were always remote, but they would be even more so were he to start to campaign this late, given that rivals have spent months working voters and building infrastructure in the key states. Despite media stories of panic, 85% of Democratic voters say they are satisfied with the current field.
Though Bloomberg wouldn’t have a chance of winning, he could significantly boost Warren (and likely also Bernie Sanders), in two main ways.
The most direct way is that to the extent Bloomberg can attract any support, it’s likely to be from the more moderate wing of the Democratic Party, which is a key part of Biden’s base. Even if he doesn’t draw big numbers, if one of the early states comes down to a few points, Bloomberg could siphon off enough votes to put Warren over the top. He is not likely to attract any of Warren’s or Sanders’ voters.
The more indirect way is that if Bloomberg enters the race, he’ll inevitably run against the radical turn in the Democratic Party. He’ll rail against the wealth tax, kicking 180 million people off private insurance, spending $34 trillion to socialize health insurance, and so on. And because he’s a big name with lots of media connections, his attacks will get a lot of attention.
And who could Warren choose as a better poster child for those opposed to her plans than a multibillionaire who decided to come out of political retirement and spend oodles of cash trying to take her down?
If Bloomberg does jump in, Warren can celebrate Christmas a bit early this year.
