Virginia, which Barack Obama carried 53%-46% in 2003—exactly his national average—is the scene of several seriously contested House races this year.
One is in the 5th district, where Democrat Tom Perriello upset incumbent Republican Virgil Goode by only 727 votes, the smallest popular vote margin in any 2008 House race. Perriello was helped by high turnout in the university town of Charlottesville and among black voters in rural counties. Now it looks like he needs a lot more help. A SurveyUSA poll shows him trailing Republican state Senator Robert Hurt 58%-35%. That’s the worst showing for a non-scandal-plagued incumbent House member I can remember seeing. SurveyUSA points out that its sample tilts Republican, which it says reflects greater enthusiasm among Republican voters; it adds that even if you weight the results to reflect a less Republican electorate, Hurt would still be ahead. Perriello carries moderates and liberals, but Hurt carries conservatives 84%-10%, and they constitute 46% of the sample. I note that Hurt is also ahead 62%-30% among voters under 30. This is a small group (sample size: about 120), so there is a significant margin of error; nevertheless, this is a huge turnaround from 2008, when young voters supported Barack Obama and Democratic House candidates by a wide margin.
