The fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Armenian-occupied territory of Nagorno-Karabakh that erupted over the weekend is quickly escalating into a full-scale war. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan have declared a state of war amid general mobilization. Massive reinforcements have been sent by both governments to the combat zone, including rocket launchers capable of hitting major cities from a long distance.
The latest fighting has brought the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh to a critical stage after a quarter century of failed international mediation. Since a Moscow-brokered ceasefire in 1994, Armenia has occupied the Azerbaijani autonomous region of Nagorno-Karabakh along with seven adjacent Azerbaijani districts, or almost 14% of Azerbaijan’s territory. Four United Nations Security Council resolutions demanded the complete and unconditional withdrawal of all Armenian forces from the occupied territories, but they were ignored by a succession of governments in Yerevan.
Fighting has been sporadic over the years, but never before have both sides declared a state of war, not even in July when clashes flared at their common border north of Nagorno-Karabakh. The July fighting raised alarm in the European Union and United States, as it threatened major international energy and transportation corridors linking the Caucasus with Europe. Among them, a project of strategic importance to the EU: the Southern Gas Corridor from Azerbaijan, which diversifies natural gas supplies to Turkey and will soon end Russia’s monopoly on gas deliveries to the Balkans.
The July clashes heightened public pressure in Azerbaijan, demanding that the authorities escalate the conflict with Armenia and regain Nagorno-Karabakh. The death of a popular military commander in the fighting contributed to pro-war protests in Baku. As warfare intensifies in Nagorno-Karabakh, with Azerbaijani artillery hitting its main city, Stepanakert, and Armenia shelling Azerbaijani villages, the number of casualties is growing. On Monday, authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh said 58 of its soldiers had been killed and more than 100 people wounded. Azerbaijan has reported seven civilians killed and 26 injured. Both sides are accusing each other of starting the fighting and targeting densely populated areas.
International reaction was immediate, calling on both sides to cease fighting and return to the negotiating table. Washington warned that outside intervention can exacerbate regional tensions if Russia, Turkey, and Iran become involved. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has called for international support for Azerbaijan. Russia has dispatched military equipment to Armenia via Iranian airspace. The fresh fighting coincides with the Russian-led multinational military exercises Kavkaz-2020, conducted in southern Russia, Armenia, the Caspian, and two Russian-occupied territories in Georgia. Azerbaijan refused to take part in the drills after Russia was caught supplying Armenia with weapons through Iran.
If a full-scale war unfolds, it will not only threaten regional stability but could also have major international implications by ensnaring Russia, Iran, and Turkey in direct military confrontations. Russia may intervene to support its strategic partner Armenia, also a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. If NATO member Turkey gets involved in military operations, this will mean a de-facto clash between NATO and the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization.
In addition, the new war threatens to cut off critical energy, transportation, and communication links between Central Asia and Europe. The Southern Gas Corridor, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Baku-Supsa oil pipelines, delivering Azerbaijani crude oil to Mediterranean and Black seaports, could all be affected. War will also impact the Azerbaijan-Georgia highway, a part of Europe’s second-longest road project: the E60 East-West Highway from the Atlantic coast in France to Kyrgyzstan’s border with China. Major fiber optic cables linking Europe with Central Asia are also close to the conflict zone.
When the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh erupted in 1988, both were Soviet republics, and their fighting had little impact outside the Soviet Union. After more than 30 years, Armenia and Azerbaijan are two of the three states located in a strategically important corridor between the Caspian and Black seas, a bridge between Europe, Central Asia, and the Middle East. Georgia and Azerbaijan have also played a vital role in NATO’s military operations in Afghanistan.
It is time for an international peace effort to move to a different platform than the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe Minsk Group, which is co-chaired by a country with vested interests in maintaining the conflict: Russia. By blocking a resolution, the Kremlin tries to keep both Armenia and Azerbaijan off balance and within its orbit. Moscow has been selling weapons to both Armenia and Azerbaijan, in effect fueling the war. Russia has a strategic defense partnership with Armenia and two military bases in the country, in addition to border guards deployed at the Armenian-Turkish border.
A peace-negotiating format led by the U.S. and the EU must be promptly established — not merely to facilitate a ceasefire, but to push for a lasting resolution in which territorial integrity and full ethnic rights are recognized by both sides. Otherwise, the greater the casualties, the more difficult will it become to achieve a lasting peace.
Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington, D.C. Margarita Assenova is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation. Their recent book is entitled Eurasian Disunion: Russia’s Vulnerable Flanks.
