Beware the North Koreans, even when they release hostages

While we should welcome North Korea’s release of Kim Hak-song, Tony Kim, and Kim Dong-chul from North Korean custody, we should not delude ourselves as to why Kim Jong Un’s regime has shown this mercy. It’s not about morality or genuine efforts to build trust with President Trump. It’s about giving Trump a victory that lulls him into a more malleable negotiating position in the president’s upcoming talks with the North Korean leader.

That may already have happened. Reacting to the release, the White House noted that the president “appreciates leader Kim Jong Un’s action to release these American citizens, and views this as a positive gesture of goodwill.”

At the margin this is all very good news. These hostages have likely been held in very tough conditions for most of their period of detention. And while the conditions likely improved once Kim decided to pursue his diplomatic outreach strategy towards the U.S., it cannot have been easy for the hostages or their families. Fortunately, unlike Otto Warmbier, these Americans will return home safely.

Nevertheless, Trump must remain clear-sighted about what’s going on here. While a diplomatic resolution to the North Korean nuclear crisis is eminently possible, it is highly unlikely to come about as the Trump administration seems to believe. It’s notable, for example, that Kim hasn’t surrendered anything of substantive importance to his regime. At the same time he has been able to reduce U.S. pressure on his regime, win restored favor from Beijing and extract Seoul’s smiling appeasement.

So what does this mean going forwards?

Well, put simply, that when Trump finally meets with Kim, he must be clear sighted on what physical gains — immediate inspector access to North Korean nuclear and ballistic missile sites — he can get. Absent those successes, North Korea will keep rolling towards its ICBM capability and Trump will have lost credibility and priceless time.