Turkey’s invasion of northern Syria is a disaster. Civilians are being slaughtered, and ISIS has new space to regroup.
We need a scenario that can win a buy-in from all the major actors. One former special forces soldier claims he has the plan. He says it can attract President Trump’s support for a U.S.-guaranteed eastern Syria security zone for the Kurds and the Sunni-Arab tribes. He argues it addresses Kurdish and Turkish economic and security concerns and makes money for everyone.
Former Delta Force legend, retired Lt. Col Jim Reese laid the plan out to me. It involves a U.S.-led effort to develop oil fields in eastern Syria for the benefit of the Kurds and the Sunni-Arab tribes who live in that area, and America. It’s about using the economic element of national power in a constructive rather than coercive manner. Reese explained to me that he and two partners; oil executive John Dorrier, and James Cain, a former U.S. Ambassador who lost his son-in-law to ISIS, recently filed an application with the Federal Government to get this done. How would it work?
Each interest would supposedly benefit from a U.S.-protected energy development of the erstwhile Syrian Democratic Council controlled area of north-central and north-eastern Syria. This area is rich with oil deposits.
This idea necessarily excludes Bashar Assad. The dictator has slaughtered hundreds of thousands of Syrians and brutally imprisoned many others. Until Assad goes and Syria moves towards multi-sectarian democracy, the United States should provide for a de facto partitioned Syrian state. This wouldn’t mean war, Reese argues. He says it would mean peace with and for the people living in the outlined areas.
Let’s start with the American angle. How would Reese persuade Trump that this idea is in America’s interest?
He would address Trump’s concerns that the U.S. gets nothing out of the Middle East apart from lost lives and depleted treasure. Specifically, this plan would involve U.S. energy companies leading the infrastructure development and provide tangible benefits to the U.S. economy.
Next up, those most in need here: the Kurds and Sunni tribes of Deir ez-Zor. Their problem is the lack of a major energy industry. Addressing that gap requires external expertise. But if it isn’t America that performs the work, it will be the Russians. And if it’s the Russians, Assad and Vladimir Putin will be the only beneficiaries. They’ll buy off a couple of local power-brokers. But the Kurds and Sunni tribes will be left out. America can prevent that.
But if the Kurds win, how does Recep Tayyip Erdoğan also win? The two interests are mutually exclusive, right?
Not according to Reese. Turkey wins by tariffs, he says. If Erdoğan is able to charge tariffs on the supply of oil into pipelines on Turkish soil, Erdoğan is in the money. Considering Turkey’s sustained economic weakness, Erdoğan needs all the oil revenue he can get. This deal would also address Turkey’s legitimate security concerns. A shared commitment that the Kurdistan Workers Party terrorist group don’t get a piece of the pie. Conversely, if Turkey doesn’t want to support this plan, the U.S. can do it anyway and/or sanction the Turkish economy.
None of this would be simple. This deal would infuriate Assad and the Russians (who want the oil for themselves), and the Iranians, who want to use eastern Syria as their pipeline for arms supplies to Hezbollah in Lebanon. But those actors have been and will be deterred in Syria. The deal would also require sustained American brokering so that infighting between the Kurds and Turks didn’t disrupt the deal before it even began.
But if you listen to Reese pitch his plan, it certainly seems worth a shot.
