The Democratic nomination is increasingly out of reach for Sen. Bernie Sanders, who must now win over 57% of the outstanding delegates to be able to secure the Democratic nomination outright.
As of right now, Sanders has 736 delegates compared to 890 for Joe Biden, according to the Associated Press. But he would need 1,991 to win the nomination with a majority.
That means he still is 1,255 delegates away with just 2,185 still outstanding. This includes delegates that will be up for grabs in the remaining contests and a smaller number that have yet to be fully allocated from contests that have already been held.
By comparison, Sanders has only won 41% of the delegates that have been awarded up to this point.
Making matters worse for Sanders, many of his best chances to pick up delegates are already behind him. He lost Texas as well as Michigan (site of his big victory in 2016), and the liberal state of Washington was so close that at present time it’s a draw from delegate allocation perspective. California, which he won, is mostly accounted for in his current numbers, even though some delegates continue to trickle in as results get finalized.
On Tuesday, the four states holding primaries are all states that Sanders lost in 2016 and in which he trails Biden by over 20 percentage points: Ohio, Florida, Arizona, and Illinois. With 577 delegates at stake, Biden will only put the race more out of reach.
One complicating factor is that the primaries are being held at a time when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is recommending no gatherings of more than 50 people. The issue is especially fraught given that many poll workers are retirees.
There has already been pressure to delay Tuesday’s primaries, and even if they continue, it’s unclear what will happen beyond them. But there is no doubt about the daunting math facing the Sanders campaign.
