All eyes watched the Texas Senate race, and Democrats hoped their new rising star, Beto O’ Rourke, would somehow beat incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz. That did not happen. Still, from the looks of the ground game in Texas, the millions of dollars that poured in from outside the state, and the way major media outlets fawned over Beto, it seemed like he was destined to win.
Why didn’t he?
Beto certainly had his fanbase secured — but they weren’t necessarily Texas residents. Much of his hardcore fans were in the media and urban areas outside the state — there was even an election night watch party for him in Washington, D.C. These urban areas not only tend to lean more progressive ideologically, but those voters especially tend to enjoy politicians who really embrace identity politics or exude a certain kind of star appeal. Beto did both well and reaped those urban votes.
But even Beto’s record-breaking fundraising haul couldn’t earn him enough votes to beat Cruz.
Beto raised more than $38 million in the third quarter, three times the amount Cruz raised in that same period, and about $100 million overall. He raised more money than any other Senate candidate in history. But again, much of that money came from outside Texas, and wasn’t representative of home-state support.
[Related: Why Beto O’Rourke is going to lose, in one photo]
Still, even voters in Texas could see Beto’s charisma. At the polls in Tarrant County, Texas, which traditionally votes quite conservative, I spoke to people who liked him enough to vote for him. Robyn White, a redhead in her 40s, called herself a “yellow-dog Democrat,” or a classical liberal. Even though she lives in Tarrant County, she was happily voting for Beto. “Beto is awesome,” she said with a grin. “He’s smart. He’s not negative. He’s willing to reach across the aisle.” White, who referred to President Trump as a “robber baron-in-chief,” said she believes Cruz’s problem was “he doesn’t want to represent Texans, he wants to represent Republicans.” However, she did acknowledge that Cruz remained popular with voters during the campaign and obviously through Election Day.
Some Texans seemed to vote for Beto not just for what he might do for Texas but for what that kind of win would project for the country — at least to them. Carol White, 68, a grandmother of five, said she flat-out believed “the country is going in the wrong direction” and President Trump was responsible for it. She’s voted every chance she can recall for the last several election cycles. “Beto reminds me a lot of JFK,” she said. “I firmly expect him to be president one day.”
Politicians don’t always have to win a Senate or governor’s race before they run for president, but it does help. Trump obviously never held elected office, while President Abraham Lincoln was a member of Congress who later lost a Senate race before becoming president.
O’Rourke could not pull this election off, largely due to the demographics in Texas, demographics of folks who eschew the very thing O’Rourke represents: outside influence and progressive identity politics.
For starters, the early vote count in Texas skyrocketed this year. The Hill reported that 4.5 million people voted early in Texas. One election judge in Tarrant County, which traditionally goes for Republicans, echoed the same thing on the ground. Sheila Franklin typically votes Republican, although she wasn’t able to share details about who she voted for this year due to her position. She told me,“Over 39 percent of registered voters voted early” and “voter turnout, especially this morning, was heavy.”
In terms of pure numbers, Texas is just simply more of a conservative state. While many of the urban areas like Austin and Dallas voted for O’Rourke, Texas is chock-full of deep-red areas: Folks who honor God, family, and guns — probably in that order. Their values align with conservative values, so they voted accordingly. Amie Super lives near O’Rourke’s campaign headquarters and hoped to be as thrilled to see O’Rourke lose as she was to see Cruz win.
“Tarrant County is the last Republican hold-out in Texas for a major city and it’s been that way for probably the last 30-40 years,” she told me. Super recognizes a strong demographic that much of the mainstream media overlooked in their zeal to identify the typical O’Rourke voter, who is often young and lives in urban areas: white, middle-aged, educated women.
“Our anal, WASPish, OCD ways have saved us year after year as our demographic group faithfully actually makes the effort to vote in far greater numbers than any other demographic group in this country,” she said.
Still, despite Cruz’s victory, the race’s closeness indicates a shift in Texas. Carol White’s husband Robert accompanied her to the polls. He also voted for O’Rourke, but demurred a little from the hype acknowledging Cruz still might pull out a win. “Even if Beto doesn’t win, if he comes close, that’s just as good. Especially for Texas. It means Texas is changing.”
On that, White appears correct. Cruz won his race against Sadler in 2012 by a landslide. Texas might not have gone blue but it could be swaying somewhat. It may not be a tsunami or a tidal wave of blue, but perhaps a gusty wind bringing a heavy rainfall.
But if Tuesday night’s results show anything, it’s that identity politics, JFK-like charisma, and outside money do not a Senate victory make.
Nicole Russell (@russell_nm) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. She is a journalist who previously worked in Republican politics in Minnesota.
