Pakistan’s arrest on Wednesday of longtime terrorist Hafiz Saeed should not be viewed for the pretense Pakistan intends. It must be viewed as a sign of Pakistan’s desperation under economic pressure. And the Trump administration should keep the heat on Islamabad in return for durable concessions.
This need for action at this particular moment is crucial for two reasons. First, because Pakistani government support for terrorist groups and regionally destabilizing activities is counter to American interests. Second, because it is rare for the U.S. to have such leverage over Pakistan.
But the leverage is real. Pakistan’s economy is in deep trouble and the government lacks capital to pay its way forward. To get that capital via the International Monetary Fund, Pakistan needs American support. Arresting Saeed, ringleader of the 2008 Mumbai attacks in India, might earn that support were it serious. Unfortunately, the arrest is almost certainly only a bit of trickery.
The Pakistanis are desperate to placate President Trump in advance of his meeting with Prime Minister Imran Khan in Washington next week. That’s what Saeed’s arrest and a couple of shows of compromise with India offer. But we shouldn’t delude ourselves. Right now, the Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorist is likely sitting in a comfortable office sipping tea. He will not be in the general prison population or solitary confinement, where he belongs. Saeed is an ally of certain Pakistani security elements and politicians. He is useful to these interests, including Khan, in either attacking India or stirring up hard-line Islamist populism.
Trump must focus on undercutting those broader interests without being distracted by Khan’s games.
What’s really going on here is that Khan desperately needs U.S. support for financial aid to salvage his decrepit economy. Confident in the Pakistani military’s unparalleled national power and its vested interest in maintaining control, the U.S. can exert greater pressure on Pakistan without risking its collapse into terrorist administration.
So that’s what Trump should do when he sits down with Khan and the Pakistani establishment next week. Trump should present two demands in return for U.S. aid and American support for IMF loans. First, Khan’s commitment to put Saeed in a normal prison for the rest of his life. Second, that the ISI’s new director (but old ISI hand) Lt. Gen. Faiz Hameed purge his ranks of terrorist sympathizers and enablers. Hameed knows who these figures are. This is long overdue action and would foster much healthier relations Pakistani relations with the U.S. and India. In that, it would also be a boon for the Pakistani economy.
In addition, Trump should offer Pakistan a generous deal if it decides to alter its strategic calculation of interests. More specifically, Trump should tell Khan that if Pakistan orients itself away from terrorist proxies and enablers, and reduces its support for China, it will receive a major injection of U.S. financial support. Pakistan will refuse the offer, but Trump’s action will at least help shape the Pakistani domestic political debate going forward (the Pakistani intelligentsia and military elements are skeptical of the U.S. but hateful of terrorists).
The simple point is that Trump must not be distracted by Khan’s nice words and fake pretenses. The Pakistani relationship is a challenging one and must be handled as such. But Trump has opportunities to improve that relationship in America’s and ultimately, Pakistan’s, favor. He should take them.
