SIOUX CITY, Iowa — It actually feels relatively nice at only 3 degrees below zero, the warmest temperature Iowa has seen in a few days. The snow has stopped falling, the wind has died down, and the sun is out. But still, Monday night’s Iowa caucuses will be the coldest on record, and the foot or so of snow last week means plenty of people are homebound — plowed into their driveway or too cold to walk.

Throw in former President Donald Trump’s massive lead in the latest polls, and these will likely be the least-attended caucuses in history. It’s impossible to predict with certainty, but it seems likely that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) will benefit the most from the temperatures, while former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley will suffer the most.