President Joe Biden is wildly unpopular, but that fact alone is not going to gift Republicans election wins in 2024. In fact, the red flags are already beginning to fly.

Florida Democrats won the special election for state House District 35. In 2020, Biden won that district over then-President Donald Trump by 5 points. In 2022, the GOP candidate won it by 11 points. In a return to 2020 numbers, Democrat Tom Keen won the special election on Tuesday by just over 2 points.