Only 110,000, or roughly 15%, of registered Republicans in Iowa voted in Monday’s caucuses compared to the 187,000 Republicans who voted in 2016. Perhaps the extreme cold is the main factor that drove down turnout, or the fact that former President Donald Trump had such a commanding lead in the polls. Some conservative strategists are concerned that such low numbers in Iowa could be indicative of a wider enthusiasm problem on the Right heading into the general election, but the answer may be simpler and further-reaching. 

Assuming that a Trump-Biden rematch is a foregone conclusion — considering the age of both candidates, nothing is certain — it will be the first time since the 1892 election between former President Grover Cleveland and incumbent Benjamin Harrison that a former president will challenge the man who beat him in the previous cycle. Trump’s appeal in 2016 was as a political outsider leading a brand new movement, fresh off of a successful campaign to take over the Republican Party. Biden’s appeal in 2020 was akin to Warren G. Harding’s call for a “return to normalcy” in 1920. It is no surprise that both pitches were effective considering the political landscapes at the time, but running back the same message in 2024 makes no sense for either campaign.