Appropriators lost.
But spending is out of fashion this year. The spontaneous outpouring of opposition to the expansion of government symbolized by but not limited to the tea party movement has been based on opposition to spending, not opposition to taxes. Suddenly pork is not kosher. Additional evidence: the decision of House Appropriations Chairman David Obey to retire after 41 years in Congress.
Specter seems to have carried only three of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties: Philadelphia, where Barack Obama’s endorsement undoubtedly helped with black voters; Dauphin, which includes the state capital of Harrisburg; and Lackawanna (Scranton), which has gotten a lot of pork over the years.
Two.
Tea tastes good.
Rand Paul, the son of Congressman Ron Paul, attributed his 59%-35% victory over party insider favorite Trey Grayson to the spirit of the tea party movement, and there is undoubtedly something to that. He was also helped by the fundraising prowess of his father’s libertarian presidential campaign. Democrats promptly attacked him as an extremist, but the margin of his victory—and the very narrow margin for Democratic nominee Attorney General Jack Conway, the insiders’ candidate—suggest he will be formidable in a state where Barack Obama has never been popular.
Three.
The unambiguous 53%-44% victory of Democrat Mark Critz over Republican Tim Burns in the Pennsylvania 12 special election should be a caution to Republicans.
Lesson: anti-Obama sentiment will not automatically be transformed into votes for Republican candidates. Critz carried by solid margins the district’s portions of Fayette and Greene Counties, steel-and-coal areas ancestrally Democratic areas that voted (narrowly) for John McCain in November 2008. Ditto Cambria County, Critz’s home base and that of the late 36-year incumbent John Murtha for whom Critz was a staffer, which gave Obama a very narrow margin.
Critz was helped by his conservative stands on health care, guns and cap-and-trade, he was helped by the refusal of 2008 Republican nominee and primary contender Bill Russell’s refusal to endorse Burns, and he was helped by the fact that there was a serious statewide contest in the Democratic primary but not in the Republican primary. But in November 2008 a lot of registered Democrats here voted Republican. In May 2010 a smaller proportion of registered Democrats did so. It’s true that Republicans don’t need Pennsylvania 12 for a House majority; it’s about number 60 on their list and they need 40 seats. But Republican strategists shouldn’t believe their election night spin. This was a loss.
Four. The left wing of the Democratic party is not rolling over and playing dead, at least in Democratic primaries.
It can claim success in Joe Sestak’s victory in Pennsylvania, in Bill Halter’s good showing in Arkansas (he only started running March 1, but raised millions from labor unions and moveon.org) and perhaps in the (very narrow) victory of Jack Conway in Kentucky. The positions of these candidates on issues like card check, health care and cap-and-trade seem likely to make it hard for them to win in November; note that Sestak’s stands on the last two of these are the opposite of those of Mark Critz, the Democrat who was able to win the Pennsylvania 12 special election.
Sestak could well run behind Critz in that district and behind other local Democrats in western Pennsylvania. Halter’s stand for card check and his union money could be a real millstone should he win the runoff against Senator Blanche Lincoln next month and face Rep. John Boozman, who won the Republican nomination without a runoff. Conway’s stands could prove similiarly troublesome in Kentucky against Rand Paul. Nevertheless, the Democratic left is not dead and buried. Polling evidence suggests that the enthusiasm level of some Democrats went up after passage of the health care bill, and these results are more evidence for that proposition. Republicans would be unwise to count on very low turnout by Democrats in November.
Five. Political polarization.
My Examiner column today, written before the results came in last night, was about the increasing polarization in our politics. At the end I suggested that the results might reduce polarization and added, “but don’t count on it.” Last night’s results suggest more polarization in the months ahead.
